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Myanmar: UN rights office warns of growing crisis in Rakhine state

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Myanmar: UN rights office warns of growing crisis in Rakhine state

Fierce battles have intensified between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed group, displacing tens of thousands of people in Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships in recent days.

An estimated 45,000 Rohingya have reportedly fled to an area on the Naf River near the border with Bangladesh, seeking protection. Over one million Rohingya are already in the country, having fled past purges.

Serious allegations 

The UN human rights office, OHCHR, has received “frightening and disturbing reports” of the impacts of the conflict, said Spokesperson Liz Throssell.

“Some of the most serious allegations concern incidents of killing of Rohingya civilians and the burning of their property,” she told journalists in Geneva.

OHCHR said Buthidaung has been largely burned, citing testimonies, satellite images and online videos.

Information received indicates that the burning began on 17 May after the military had retreated from the town and the Arakan Army claimed to have taken full control.

Civilians flee Buthidaung 

“One survivor described seeing dozens of dead bodies as he fled the town,” said James Rodehaver, OHCHR Myanmar Team Leader, speaking from Bangkok .

“Another survivor said that he was among a group of displaced persons, numbering in the tens of thousands, who attempted to move outside of the town to safety along the western road towards Maungdaw. But they were blocked by the Arakan Army from going in that direction.” 

Survivors reported that the Arakan Army had abused them and extorted money from them as they moved towards other nearby Rohingya villages, where Rohingya already displaced by earlier attacks had previously sought shelter. 

For weeks, Rohingya in these areas have described sheltering with families they do not know and not having enough to eat.

Shootings, beheadings, disappearances 

OHCHR documented renewed attacks on the Rohingya by both the Arakan Army and Myanmar military, the Tatmadaw, in the weeks leading up to the burning of Buthidaung. 

“Of course, many of these were as a result of airstrikes perpetrated by the military as well as other attacks perpetrated by unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones,” Mr. Rodehaver said.

“We’ve also received reports of shooting at unarmed fleeing villagers. We have confirmed at least four cases of beheadings and multiple enforced disappearances of individuals, as well as several villages and homes that have been burned.” 

Risk of expansion 

OHCHR sees “clear and present risks of a serious expansion of violence as the battle for neighbouring Maungdaw town has begun”, Ms. Throssell said. 

The Myanmar military maintains outposts in the town and a large Rohingya community lives there, including hundreds of displaced Rohingya who moved from villages seeking safety. 

End the violence 

She said the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, has called for an immediate end to the violence, and for all civilians to be protected without any distinction based on identity.

“Prompt and unhindered humanitarian relief must be allowed to flow, and all parties must comply fully and unconditionally with international law – including measures already ordered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), for the protection of Rohingya,” she added.

International action needed 

Separately, the UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar warned that “thousands of innocent lives will be lost if the international community fails to respond to ominous signs of another Rohingya bloodbath in Rakhine state.”

In a statement issued on Thursday, Tom Andrews said “once again, the world seems to be failing a desperate people in their hour of peril while a hate-driven unnatural disaster unfolds in real time in Myanmar’s Rakhine State.” 

The information that has emerged “more than warrants” an immediate response from the international community, he added.

Mr. Andrews urged all sides to adhere to international humanitarian law and take all steps to protect civilians, regardless of their religion or ethnicity.  

A Rohingya refugee from Myanmar receives support from the UN in Bhasan Char in Bangladesh.

Support Bangladesh 

Recalling that Bangladesh had opened its borders to the Rohingya after a crackdown in 2017, thus saving untold numbers of lives, he noted that once again, this generosity might be their only hope in the face of forced displacement. 

He warned, however, that Bangladesh lacks the capacity to meet the demands of this crisis without the emergency intervention and support of the international community. 

“Rations cuts, inadequate infrastructure, spiraling violence, and reported forced recruitment by Rohingya militant groups have threatened the lives and wellbeing of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh,” he said.

He appealed for “an emergency infusion of funds” to both support desperate families fleeing conflict and to address the current conditions in Rohingya refugee camps.

About UN Special Rapporteurs 

Special Rapporteurs are appointed by the UN Human Rights Council, which is located in Geneva. 

These experts monitor and report on specific country situations or thematic issues worldwide. They are not UN staff and are not paid for their work. 

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After 76 years: Tsar Ferdinand’s coffin leaves for Bulgaria on Monday

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The casket with the mortal remains of Tsar Ferdinand leaves for Bulgaria late on Monday. This was reported by the Catholic Church “St. Augustine” in the German city of Coburg, in whose crypt the body of the monarch was laid after his death in 1948, next to the sarcophagi of his mother and father.

After his death, Tsar Ferdinand was placed in a so-called traveling coffin, because his dying wish was to be buried in Bulgaria, which he had ruled for 31 years, first as prince and then as king.

The ruler, who is blamed for the national disasters following the War of the Allies and the First World War, lived in exile in Coburg for almost 30 years after his abdication in 1918.

The return of his mortal remains to Bulgaria takes place according to the will of his grandson Simeon of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha. The coffin will be laid to rest in the family crypt of his beloved Vrana Palace in Sofia, the Tsar Boris and Tsaritsa Joanna Fund announced earlier.

“On Monday, May 27, 2024, from 5:00 p.m., Tsar Ferdinand’s remains will be sent to a public service. On that day, the coffin will be in St. Augustine’s Parish Church from 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. This gives an opportunity for all who wish to do so to say goodbye in person to the deceased in silence,” reads the announcement from Coburg.

Photo: Ferdinand I of Bulgaria (1861-1948), House of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha and Gotha-Kohary, in Bulgarian Field Marshal’s uniform 1941. Tsar of Bulgaria, representative of the Catholic branch of the Saxe-Coburg-Gothа dynasty, which in the 19th century ruled several monarchies in Europe – Great Britain, Belgium, Portugal and, from 1887, Bulgaria. His mother, Princess Clementine of Bourbon-Orléans, was the daughter of the last French king, Louis-Philippe / LOSTBULGARIA.COM.

Archaeologists discovered Alexander the Great’s bath in Aigai Palace

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Archaeologists claim to have discovered Alexander the Great’s bath at Aigai Palace in northern Greece. The huge Aigai Palace, which stretches over 15,000 square meters and is larger than the Parthenon, is located at the ceremonial center of the ancient Macedonian kingdom.

Excavations also uncovered the palaestra, or gymnasium for martial arts, where Alexander trained, located adjacent to his bathing facilities.

The discovery was featured in the final episode of Channel 4’s Bethany Hughes’ Treasures of the World on May 11.

The site is located near the village of Vergina in the municipality of Veria in Central Macedonia. The young man who would become known as Alexander the Great spent his formative years in this magnificent building, and it was here that he took the throne of a kingdom that would extend all the way to India.

“A substantial drainage channel has been carved into the rock, as well as a communal bath. It is believed that this area is where Alexander the Great would have bathed with his companions, including his famous favorite Hephaestion, and the multitude of young men who accompanied him on campaigns and they later fought for control of his empire after his death.Hephaestion was called his deputy.They were both trained in fighting and hunting. According to archaeologists, his bedroom has not yet been identified,” Hughes said.

After years of restoration, Greece reopened the Aigai Palace, where Alexander the Great was crowned, in January. Originally known as Vergina, the palace at Aigai is not only the largest, but also one of the most significant buildings of classical Greece, along with the Parthenon.

Built on an elevated hill in Vergina, northern Greece, during the reign of Philip II (359-336 BC), the palace is a significant landmark and symbol of beauty and power, three times the size of the Parthenon, visible from the entire Macedonian basin.

The palace at Aigai was designed for Philip II by an architect of genius, most likely Pythaeus, known for his contributions to the construction of the Mausoleum at Halicarnassus, the development of town planning and the theory of proportions.

Archaeological finds indicate continuous occupation of the site from the Early Bronze Age (III millennium BC), with its importance increasing during the Early Iron Age (XI-VIII centuries BC), when it became a prosperous and densely populated center.

Illustration: Detail of the Alexander Mosaic, representing Alexander the Great on his horse Bucephalus, during the battle of Issus. [The Alexander Mosaic, dating from circa 100 BCE, depicts the Battle of Issus (333 BCE) between Alexander the Great and Darius III of Persia. The mosaic adorned one of the exedras on the north side of the peristyle of the House of the Faun in Pompeii. The original is preserved in the Naples National Archaeological Museum].

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew will attend the summit in Switzerland

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Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew will attend the summit, which will be held in Switzerland on June 15 and 16 and will be dedicated to the war in Ukraine. Heads and representatives of many countries around the world will participate in the international meeting, which will be held in Lucerne. The purpose of the forum is to “create a common understanding” on how to achieve a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine in accordance with international law and the UN Charter,” the Swiss government said in a statement.

Patriarch Bartholomew received an official invitation from the President of Switzerland, which was handed to him by the head of the Consulate General of Switzerland in the city, Roland Bruhn, in the presence of the Ukrainian ambassador. The Patriarch also held a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, confirming the unconditional support of the Ecumenical Patriarchate for the war-torn Ukrainian people. For his part, the President of Ukraine heartily thanked His Holiness for his decision to participate in the International Conference and for his overall support for Ukraine.

Among the topics to be discussed at the summit is a proposal by a group of Russian and Ukrainian women for an “all for all” prisoner of war exchange. The women’s initiative was also supported by the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, who said after the Easter liturgy: “We pray for our brothers and sisters enduring hardships and sorrows, yearning for peace in the war-torn Middle East and long-suffering Ukraine, seeking reconciliation, justice and solidarity as a foundation In the same spirit, we stand behind the “Our Exit” initiative, advocating the exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine, especially on the occasion of the holy Passover, linking the idea of “peace from above” to “peace in the universe”. would be a very concrete expression of the power of the Resurrection”.

Illustration: Icon of the Parable of the Good Samaritan.

Gaza: Nearly 800,000 now displaced from Rafah

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Gaza: Nearly 800,000 now displaced from Rafah

“Once again, nearly half of the population of Rafah or 800,000 people are on the road,” Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini wrote in post on the social media platform X. formerly Twitter.

He said that following evacuation orders demanding people to flee to so-called safe zones, people mainly went to the middle areas in Gaza and Khan Younis, including to destroyed buildings.

No safe passage or protection

“When people move, they are exposed, without safe passage or protection,” he said.  “Every time, they have to start from scratch, all over again.”

Mr. Lazzarini said the areas that people have escaped to do not have safe water supplies or sanitation facilities.

He cited the example of Al-Mawassi, describing it as “a sandy 14 square kilometre agricultural land, where people are left out in the open with little to no buildings or roads.”

The town, located on Gaza’s southern coast, “lacks the minimal conditions to provide emergency humanitarian assistance in a safe and dignified manner.”

He said that more than 400,000 lived in Al-Mawassi before the recent escalation, but now it is “crammed and cannot absorb more people”, which is also the same in Deir al Balah.   

‘No place is safe’

“The claim that people in Gaza can move to ‘safe’ or ‘humanitarian’ zones is false. Each time, it puts the lives of civilians at serious risk,” Mr. Lazzarini stated.

“Gaza does not have any safe zones,” he added. “No place is safe.  No one is safe.” 

The situation is again being made far worse by the lack of aid and basic humanitarian supplies, he continued, noting that humanitarians do not have any more supplies to give out, including food and other basic items. 

Meanwhile, key crossings into Gaza remain closed or are unsafe to access as they are located near or in combat zones. Mr. Lazzarini also highlighted the critical need for fuel, which is essential for aid distribution.

Land routes crucial

He said only 33 aid trucks have made it to southern Gaza since 6 May – “a small trickle amid the growing humanitarian needs and mass displacement.”

“While we welcome reports on first shipments arriving at the new floating dock, land routes remain the most viable, effective, efficient and safest aid delivery method,” he said.

Earlier on Saturday, the UN Spokesperson’s Office said the World Food Programme (WFP) confirmed that 10 truckloads of food were transported to its warehouse the previous day via the floating dock, which was installed by the United States military.

“Some of the shipment included high-energy biscuits for WFP to distribute, but there were also commodities for other humanitarian partners to distribute, which included rice, pasta, and lentils,” the note said.

Mr. Lazzarini emphasized that the land crossings into Gaza must re-open and be safe to access. ”Without the re-opening of these routes, the deprivation of assistance and catastrophic humanitarian conditions will persist,” he said.

Ceasefire now

He underlined the obligations of the parties to the conflict, starting with rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian relief for all civilians in need, wherever they are located.  

“The displaced population must have access to basic survival items, including food, water, and shelter, as well as hygiene, health, assistance and above all safety,” he said.

Humanitarian relief teams also need safe and free movement to access people in need, and protection wherever they may be, and the parties are also obligated to protect civilians and civilian objects everywhere.   

“Above all, it is time to agree on a ceasefire,” he concluded.  

“Any further escalation in the fighting will only wreak more havoc on civilians and make it impossible to finally have the peace and stability that Israelis and Palestinians desperately need and deserve.”

 

 

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Lead candidates present their bids for the European Commission presidency

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© European Parliamen

Walter Baier (Austria, European Left), Sandro Gozi (Italy, Renew Europe Now), Ursula von der Leyen (Germany, European People’s Party), Terry Reintke (Germany, European Greens) and Nicolas Schmit (Luxembourg, Party of European Socialists) participated in the debate, organised by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) in collaboration with the European political parties and the European Parliament.

The debate focussed on Economy and Jobs, Defence and Security, Climate and Environment, Democracy and Leadership, Migration and Borders and on Innovation and Technology.

Questions were asked by the audience in the plenary chamber, by viewers watching from events organised by Parliament’s Liaison Offices in EU member states, submitted via social media, and by the two moderators. Candidates also faced one-on-one questioning by the moderators in so-called “Spotlight” segments.

You can watch the debate again on Parliament’s Multimedia Centre and on the EBU website.

Windows clipboard is now AI-powered

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Smart clipboard – artistic interpretation. Image credit: Alius Noreika / Microsoft Copilot

Imagine if your clipboard could harness the power of AI. It’s not fiction anymore – Windows already has the new PowerToys Advanced Paste update, which makes this kind of functionality real.

This novelty, though, comes with a small fee. But it can automatically convert text and add data from ChatGPT

Microsoft has introduced an Advanced Paste feature in PowerToys for Windows 11, allowing users to convert clipboard content on the fly using AI. This feature enhances productivity by enabling tasks like copying code in one language and pasting it in another, although its more advanced capabilities require OpenAI API credits.

Included in PowerToys version 0.81, Advanced Paste can be activated with a specific key command: Windows Key + Shift + V. This opens an Advanced Paste text window, offering paste conversion options such as plaintext, markdown, and JSON.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Windows clipboard is now AI-powered

By enabling Paste with AI in the Advanced Paste settings, users can access an OpenAI prompt to specify the desired conversion. This can range from summarizing text and translating to generating code, rewriting text from casual to professional style, or even using Yoda syntax—essentially, any transformation you can imagine.

However, to use this feature, there are some prerequisites. Users need to add an OpenAI API key in PowerToys and must purchase credits for their OpenAI account if they don’t already have them. It’s important to note that API credits are distinct from a paid ChatGPT account.

Written by Alius Noreika



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A Russian Jehovah’s Witness was sentenced to 8 years in prison 

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On May 16, 2024, the Samara Regional Court confirmed the sentence of Jehovah’s Witness Alexander Chagan to 8 years in prison under Part 1 of Art. 282.2 Criminal Code (organization of the activities of an extremist organization). 

On February 29, 2024, the Central District Court of Togliatti sentenced Chagan to eight years in a penal colony. In addition to the main punishment, Chagan was assigned a year of restriction of freedom and a three-year ban on participation in activities related to religious organizations.

In comparison 

  • According to Article 111 Part 1 of the Russian Federation’s Criminal Code, grievous bodily harm draws a maximum of 8 years sentence.  
  • According to Article 126 Part 1 of the Criminal Code, kidnapping leads to up to 5 years in prison. 
  • According to Article 131 Part 1 of the Criminal Code, rape is punishable with 3 to 6 years in prison.

The criminal case against the Jehovah’s Witness was initiated on September 14, 2022 – the investigation was carried out by the Central Interdistrict Investigation Department of Togliatti of the Investigative Committee of Russia in the Samara region. According to the investigation, the believer was involved in “involving citizens in the banned extremist organization “Advernal Center of Jehovah’s Witnesses in Russia”. On September 21 of the same year, his apartment, as well as Vladimir Zubkov’s, were searched. Later, Chagan was assigned a preventive measure in the form of a travel ban. In July 2023, the case was brought to court. After the verdict was announced, he was detained in the courtroom. 

The accusation of Jehovah’s Witnesses of involvement in the activities of an extremist organization is due to the fact that in April 2017, the Supreme Court of Russia decided to recognize the Management Center of Jehovah’s Witnesses in Russia and their 395 local religious organizations as extremist. This decision, which led to the mass persecution of believers under Art. 282.2 of the Criminal Code, had no legal basis, and can be interpreted as a manifestation of religious discrimination.  

In June 2022, the ECHR issued a ruling on the complaint of Jehovah’s Witnesses, in which it recognized that the prohibition of their organization, the closure of all their local associations and the prosecution of their membersbelievers were contrary to the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms.  

The ECHR demanded the termination of criminal cases under Art. 282.2 of the Criminal Code against Jehovah’s Witnesses and the release of their members in detention. 

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Scientology, growingly recognized as a religion worldwide, turns 60 in Denmark

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KingNewsWire // The Church of Scientology Denmark celebrated its 60th anniversary with a lively event in Copenhagen, where distinguished speakers, such as a respected religious scholar, a passionate human rights advocate and the daughter-in-law of the church’s first Danish pioneer participated. The festivities included performances, thought-provoking speeches, delicious treats and a special tour of the church’s historic premises.

Copenhagen, 21st May 2024 – It was on 1st April 1964 that the very first Church of Scientology got registered in Denmark. The day was celebrated with an Open House anniversary in the premises of the Church of Scientology Denmark, located right in the oldest square in  Copenhagen. Among the speakers celebrating the day were a renowned religious scholar, a Human Rights advocate and the daughter-in-law of the man, who first brought Scientology to Denmark in 1964

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Scientology, growingly recognized as a religion worldwide, turns 60 in Denmark

The 60 years anniversary was celebrated with an Open House attended by dignitaries, friends, neighbors, professionals, members of the Church and people passing by, who experienced both enlightening speeches and uplifting live entertainment. 

The first speaker, scholar of religion, Adjunct Professor Tim Jensen, expressed his gratitude for having had the opportunity over the years to follow the Church of Scientology. He said: 

“As a religious scholar it is interesting to be able to follow the development and establishment of a new religion like Scientology. In my scientific work with comparative religious history I have looked at both Scientology and other minority religions vis-à-vis the religion of the Danish majority and the dominant perceptions of what is ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ when it comes to religion. 

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Scientology, growingly recognized as a religion worldwide, turns 60 in Denmark

It is my hope that this work is paving the way for people to reflect more on whether their culturally determined views of religion are the only correct and possible ones. That perhaps religion can exist in other ways and perhaps people such as Scientologists could be perfectly fine even if their religion may seemed ‘foreign’ and ‘different’. I want to thank you for the extreme openness and kindness I have been met with in the Church.”

The next speaker was long-term human rights advocate and author, Bashy Quraishy. After giving the anecdotes about how he got introduced to the Church of Scientology more than 30 years ago, he went on to saying: 

“Even if I do not know in full detail, what the Church of Scientology stand for, I have a pretty good idea of the work you are engaged in. 

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Scientology, growingly recognized as a religion worldwide, turns 60 in Denmark

Top of the list is to uplift an individual spirit, thus making that person, not only a happy and satisfied human being but also a valuable contributor to spread kindness, freedom and hope in the society and the world at large. To me, this is the greatest achievement of the Church of Scientology and the continuation of the legacy of Mr. L. Ron Hubbard’s lifelong work.”

Before the guests were able to enjoy more live entertainment, delicious refreshments and were given the opportunity to tour the esthetically renovated property in the Copenhagen middle-age city, which since 7 years has been the home of the Church of Scientology Denmark, there were two more final speakers. 

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Scientology, growingly recognized as a religion worldwide, turns 60 in Denmark

The first one was Kirsten Jørck, daughter-in-law of the man who first brought Scientology to Denmark in 1964, Knud Jørck. She told how he had visited the home of the founder of the Scientology religion, L. Ron Hubbard, in the south of England in the early 1960ies. After having read some of the books about the subject, he was so enthusiastic that he filled up his car with books and brought them back to Denmark for his friends. 

Kirsten Jørck continued: 

“I remember the first Scientology Center in a  Copenhagen suburb, where a lecture was held every Wednesday. People were lining up in front of the house an hour before the lecture started and the queue went all the way down the street. And when the room was full, the door was simply closed and people were told to come back next Wednesday.” 

The description was so picturesque that it made everyone laugh. She went on to tell about how she and her husband, Peter Jørck, became executives in the Danish Church of Scientology, a position they held for many years after having done a full education as Church Executives directly under the supervision of L. Ron Hubbard

At the end, Kirsten Jørck introduced her son, Mikkel Jørck, who is now the Executive Director in the Danish Church of Scientology and who could tell how he has himself just gone through an even fuller education for Church Executives as developed by L. Ron Hubbard together with a whole team from the Danish Church. In his address to the audience he underlined: 

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Scientology, growingly recognized as a religion worldwide, turns 60 in Denmark

“This Church has never had a more competent team at the helm and we are very happy to now be able to present all the tools of Scientology to our parishioners, our neighbors and the society at large.”

Aside from the Danish Church, Copenhagen is also home to the Church of Scientology Europe, which was first established in Denmark in 1968. Here parishioners from all over Europe come to participate in the more advanced religious Scientology services provided in this special Church of Scientology. 

Further, the publishing house, New Era Publications ApS, was also established in Copenhagen back in 1968 and is now located in a Copenhagen suburb, housing one of the two publishing houses in the world, established uniquely to only present the works on one author, L. Ron Hubbard. 

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Scientology, growingly recognized as a religion worldwide, turns 60 in Denmark

Scientology’s recognition as a religion, but also for its positive impact in civil and humanitarian causes has not stop increasing, specially since the creation of Ideal Churches around the world and the laser precision tailored programs on drug prevention, human rights education, education, moral values and religious freedom worldwide.  

Currency war: Reality or fantasy?

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U.S. dollar banknote with map
Photo by Christine Roy on Unsplash

Pressrelease // Every economic cycle has its currency war. In the 1920s, France, Germany, and Belgium devalued their currencies to return to the gold standard, which had been abandoned during World War I. In the 1930s, major global economies resorted to competitive devaluations to recover the prosperity lost after the 1929 American stock market crash. In 2024, the strength of the dollar could trigger a new currency war, explains Johan Gabriels, Regional Director at iBanFirst, a leading provider of foreign exchange and international payment services for businesses.

  • In 2024, the strength of the dollar could trigger a new currency war. The market is concerned about the risk of competitive devaluations in Asia to counter the strong dollar.
  • A devaluation of the yuan could be the first domino to fall, allowing China to regain competitiveness and boost its export-driven economy to pre-pandemic levels.
  • iBanFirst analysts believe there’s little risk of a significant depreciation or devaluation of the yuan due to China’s favorable economic conditions.
  • As long as the US Federal Reserve does not move towards lowering rates—which is uncertain to happen this year—the strong dollar will remain a problem for China and the rest of the world.

Are we heading towards a new currency war? For now, only a few countries are intervening to counter the collapse of their currencies against the US dollar. These countries have one thing in common: they are all in Asia. Indonesia raised its rates in May to support the rupiah, while Japan is relying on direct yen purchases on the foreign exchange market.

Mixed success of Bank of Japan’ interventions

According to the latest estimates, the two interventions by the Bank of Japan earlier this month cost 60 billion dollars. Japan has ample foreign exchange reserves and, in theory, can continue to intervene. However, the effectiveness of a unilateral intervention is doubtful. In the past, successful interventions were coordinated and aligned with monetary policy. For Japan’s intervention to be effective, the US Treasury would also need to buy yen, which is not currently planned. Additionally, the Bank of Japan would need to further normalize its monetary policy, as an ultra-accommodative policy is incompatible with a strong currency in the long term.

Competitive devaluations in Asia 

What the market is concerned about is the risk of competitive devaluations in Asia to counter the strong dollar. A devaluation of the yuan could be the first domino to fall. It would allow China to regain competitiveness and boost its export-driven economy to pre-pandemic levels. Analysts have been fearing this scenario for months.

But is there a real risk? „We don’t believe so. Calls for a significant depreciation (or even devaluation) of the yuan ignore economic realities. China has a significant current account surplus, around 1-2% of its GDP. Its trade surplus is 3-4% of GDP, and the manufacturing trade surplus is over 10% of GDP. Given the size of the Chinese economy—18 trillion dollars, or 15% of global GDP—these surpluses are enormous”, says Johan Gabriels.

The risk of capital flight 

However, this does not mean that there are no problems. Many exporters are not converting their profits into renminbi. Due to interest rate differentials and a lack of confidence in Chinese policy, capital outflows are significant. In 2023, they reached their highest level in five years, reminding authorities of bad memories. 

Moreover, a yuan devaluation would only reinforce capital flight, as was the case in 2015-16. This painful moment in China’s economic history likely makes Beijing cautious in managing the exchange rate. Since the beginning of the year, China has mainly sought to keep the renminbi stable against the dollar without using the central bank’s ample foreign exchange reserves. Instead, it has relied on daily fixing and direct intervention in the public commercial banks’ market to signal that a yuan depreciation against the dollar is not desired.

Currency manipulation? 

Unlike the Trump era, the Biden administration seems content with the yuan’s level. China’s current account surplus is not high enough for the US Treasury to consider it a sign of currency manipulation. Additionally, China’s foreign exchange reserves growth is relatively stable, further indicating no manipulation. Lastly, Washington is well aware that the downward pressure on the yuan partly reflects the strong dollar.

As long as the US Federal Reserve does not move towards lowering rates—which is uncertain to happen this year—the strong dollar will remain a problem for China and the rest of the world. However, iBanFirst analysts doubt that the appropriate response to the strong dollar is a series of competitive devaluations, especially in China.