BERLIN, Jan. 5 (Xinhua) — The free trade deal agreed by the UK and the European Union (EU) on Christmas Eve would significantly lessen the negative economic impact of Brexit, according to a study published by Germany’s Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) on Tuesday.
“The agreement on a comprehensive agreement between the EU and the UK without tariffs and without quotas is a good signal for the economy in Germany, the EU and the UK,” said Minister for Economic Affairs Peter Altmaier in a statement.
However, Germany’s trade with the UK had already declined before the withdrawal of Britain from the EU, according to the study by the ifo Institute in cooperation with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) on behalf of the BMWi.
Although the best theoretical economic scenario was for the UK to remain in the EU’s single market, Altmaier stressed that “German companies have already prepared for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU single market.”
Goods traded between Germany and the UK continuously declined since the Brexit referendum in 2016, the study found. German car manufacturers and the country’s chemical industry were particularly affected by dropping exports to the UK.
Part of the reduced trade with the UK would be compensated by increased trade between Germany and other EU countries as well as third countries. China and the United States would become “even more important sales markets for Germany, as a result of the Brexit,” the study noted.
After months of negotiations, the EU and UK agreed on a comprehensive agreement shortly before the end of the Brexit transition period. The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement provisionally entered into force on Jan. 1.
Even with a comprehensive agreement in place, the study estimated that Germany’s real GDP would fall by around 0.14 percent, equivalent to around 4.9 billion euros (6.01 billion U.S. dollars), and by up to 0.96 percent in the UK as a result of Brexit.
“The immediate effects of Brexit on future trade link with the UK are likely to be smaller than many feared,” said Altmaier.
The European Union said on Tuesday it would redouble its efforts to save the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement despite Iran’s “important breach” of commitments made in the deal, The Associated Press reported.
Iran officially announced on Monday that it had resumed enrichment of uranium at its underground site in Fordow, in the latest violation of the 2015 deal.
TORONTO —
Ashley Audrain used to be on the other side of book publishing when she worked as publicity director with Penguin Canada, but the first-time author hit the jackpot when her buzzy psychological suspense novel, ‘The Push’, reportedly garnered her a $3 million two-book deal across more than 20 countries and attention from Hollywood. ‘The Push’, which came out Tuesday, is an unsettling tale of a mother who begins to wonder if her young daughter Violet has a dark side.
The book has generated positive reviews in the U.K.’s Guardian, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/jan/02/the-push-by-ashley-audrain-review-the-dark-side-of-motherhood" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">which described it</a> as “well thought out, carefully crafted, vividly realized and gripping,” and the New York Times, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/books/review/the-push-ashley-audrain.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">which said</a> “Audrain has a gift for capturing the seemingly small moments that speak volumes about relationships.”
“It’s as surreal as you might expect it to be, to be honest,” Audrain told CTV’s Your Morning of her journey as an author. “It’s an absolute dream come true.”
Audrain said she has always been fascinated by motherhood -- the question of why women do it, how it changes them, and what the experience is really like.
“You know -- how we’re told it would be, how we’re taught we should feel, even sort of the language we’re supposed to use around the experience of motherhood - I really wanted to explore that in fiction,” she said.
She experienced it first hand several years ago when she had her first child, who was born with health issues and spent a month at Toronto’s Sick Kids hospital after birth. That “really had me looking at motherhood quite differently and sort of examining those expectations.”
While the novel, which focuses on a mother who believes there is something wrong with her daughter but is doubted by those around her, is not autobiographical in any way, ‘The Push’ does explore what happens when a character’s expectations of motherhood do not match the reality. She spent three years writing it.
After she sent her manuscript out, Audrain was prepared to wait months before hearing back. Instead, one agent whom she had sent the manuscript to -- Madeleine Milburn -- emailed her later that same day, saying she was hosting a dinner party that evening but just wanted her guests to go home so she could finish reading.
“Which I took as a pretty good sign,” said Audrain, who is the mother of two young children, aged three and five. “I just signed with Madeleine. She’s incredible and she really just lit the match that kind of turned into what it is. It was an incredible moment I’ll never forget.”
Shortly after the book sold to publishers last summer, Hollywood producers for film and TV came knocking as well with multiple offers. Rights were ultimately sold to David Heyman, who did the Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts franchise, as well as Marriage Story and the Paddington films.
“It was just such a strange, wild and wonderful summer,” Audrain said.
In his first regular media briefing of the new year, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, told journalists that WHO was also “picking up and analyzing hundreds of potential signals every week”, concerning other life-threatening illnesses.
But he made clear the pandemic remains “a major public health crisis”, while assuring that WHO is “working day and night” to accelerate science, provide solutions on the ground and build global solidarity.
“I urge all governments to work together and live up to their commitments to equitable distribution globally and all pharmaceutical groups to boost supply as quickly as possible and to fully participate in COVAX”-@DrTedros#COVID19#ACTogether
Pointing out that WHO’s work stretches “far beyond emergencies”, the UN official explained that its operations encompass improving “human health in all its aspects from birth to old age”.
He elaborated on the breadth of the agency’s activities – from keeping mothers and babies alive during childbirth to tackling mental health and controlling HIV and other diseases.
“We have learned a lot in the last year; not least that health is an investment in overall development, critical for thriving economies and a key pillar of national security”, said the WHO chief.
No afterthought
Integrated primary healthcare systems are imperative to prevent, screen and treat infectious and noncommunicable diseases.
Citing the pandemic, Tedros said that infectious viruses put those with underlying conditions “at highest risk of dying”, and that countries with high numbers of people with health conditions put “extra stress on the health system”.
He maintained that health cannot be “an afterthought when we have an emergency” and underscored the need to “invest in preparedness and surveillance to stop the next pandemic”.
New vaccine development standard
At the dawn of 2021, scientists and public health experts from inside and outside WHO are continuing to break down the latest data and put forward solutions to “build back greener and stronger health systems”, Tedros said.
“My one hope is that there’s less politicking about health in the year ahead”, he stated.
Pointing out that the scientific community has “set a new standard for vaccine development”, he urged the international community to set a new standard for access.
“People must come first over short-term profits. It’s in countries self-interest to shun vaccine nationalism”, the UN official said.
A shot in the arm
Last week, WHO cleared the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for emergency use and yesterday the rollout of the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, developed by Oxford University, began in the United Kingdom.
With 190 “countries and economies” backing the COVAX international vaccines-for-all initiative, Tedros wants to see to see all manufacturers quickly channel supplies there, to enable rollouts to protect high-risk people globally.
“We owe it morally to health workers everywhere who have been fighting this pandemic around the clock for the best part of a year, to vaccinate them all as soon as possible”, he said.
(Photo: REUTERS / Stefano Rellandini)Britain’s Queen Elizabeth talks with Pope Francis during a meeting at the Vatican April 3, 2014.
Despite a national decline in religious observance, slightly over half of Brits continue to see the United Kingdom as a Christian country, but religiousness is low, a new study has found and it is very low in the 16-24 age group.
The survey reveals that Christian Britain in more of a self-perception than a praticed reality.
YouGov, a UK international internet-based market research and data analytics firm, found that while most British people celebrate Easter and Christmas, the majority do so in a secular way.
“Religiousness is also low – with over half of Britons (55%) saying they are not a member of any religion. Even amongst those who are religious, just over half say they believe there is a god,” found You.
Just over half (56 percent) of Britons say the UK is a Christian country.
“This view is held by seven in ten (69 percent) British Christians. The 16-24-year-old generation is split — 41 percent say Britain is a Christian country, whilst 39 percent say it isn’t,” the poll found.
“Our study has found that whilst the majority of Britons celebrate both Christmas and Easter, most do it in a secular way,” says YouGov.
It noted that there is a generational divide to the holiday that is more important in the Christian calendar.
“For those who celebrate, Christmas is more important than Easter. Whilst the majority of Britons think that the religious aspects of Christmas/Easter celebrations are on the decline, a minority would like to see this reversed.”
Older Britons are more likely to see Britain as a Christian country, with 53 percent of those aged 25-39, 59 percent of those in their 40s and 50s, and 61 percent of those aged 60 and above holding that view, reported Premier Christian News.
Amongst younger citizens, the number drops – 41 percent say it is a Christian country, whilst 39 percent say it isn’t.
There is also a general agreement that both Christmas and Easter should remain as national public holidays – a view held by those who are both religious and non-religious.
Around eight in 10 Britons (82 percent) say that the religious aspects of Christmas celebrations are declining, with seven in 10 (72 percent) saying the same of Easter, the poll found.
CHRISTMAS AND EASTER IN DECLINE
Around four in 10 (40-42 percent) who think the religious significance of Christmas and Easter is in decline say this is a bad thing, while 18 percent say it is a good thing
Yet, just 4 percent of Britons who celebrate Christmas do so in a religious manner, whilst for six in 10 (61 percent) it is a completely secular event.
Three in ten (31 percent) combine the two aspects.
“Easter is marked in a religious fashion by 10 percent of those who observe this holiday, 56 percent have a secular celebration and 29 percent combine the two.
Just over a quarter of Britons (27 percent) follow the Pope’s Christmas and Easter messages. A third (32 percent) pay attention to the Christmas/Easter messages by the Archbishop of Canterbury, the Anglican leader.
Just over half of those surveyed (52 percent) consider the story of the birth of Jesus Christ to be historically inaccurate, whilst 31 percent think it’s accurate.
Among British Christians, over a quarter (27 percent) say they don’t believe in the accuracy of the Christmas story.
Policy makers must move decisively, according to January’s Global Economic Prospects, and although it is already growing again following the 4.3 per cent contraction of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused “a heavy toll of deaths and illness, plunged millions into poverty, and may depress economic activity and incomes for a prolonged period”, said a press release issued by the World Bank – a key financial institution within the United Nations system.
Immediate policy priorities should now focus on controlling the spread of coronavirus and ensuring rapid and widespread vaccine deployment. “To support economic recovery, authorities also need to facilitate a re-investment cycle aimed at sustainable growth that is less dependent on government debt”, the Bank advises.
“While the global economy appears to have entered a subdued recovery, policymakers face formidable challenges—in public health, debt management, budget policies, central banking and structural reforms—as they try to ensure that this still fragile global recovery gains traction and sets a foundation for robust growth”, said World Bank Group President, David Malpass.
“To overcome the impacts of the pandemic and counter the investment headwind, there needs to be a major push to improve business environments, increase labour and product market flexibility, and strengthen transparency and governance.”
Less severe contraction
The collapse in global economic activity in 2020 due to the onset of the pandemic, is estimated to have been slightly less severe than previously projected, mainly due to shallower contractions in advanced economies overall, and a more robust recovery in China, the forecast states.
However, for most emerging market and developing economies, the impact was more acute than expected.
“Financial fragilities in many of these countries, as the growth shock impacts vulnerable household and business balance sheets, will also need to be addressed”, said Vice President and World Bank Group Chief Economist, Carmen Reinhart.
Known unknowns
The variables in the near-term remain “highly uncertain” the World Bank warned, and a continuing rise in infections coupled with a delayed vaccine rollout, could limit global expansion this year to just 1.6 per cent.
“Meanwhile, in an upside scenario with successful pandemic control and a faster vaccination process, global growth could accelerate to nearly five per cent”, according to the press statement.
In the United States, GDP, or gross domestic product, is forecast to increase by around 3.5 per cent this year, after an estimated 3.6% contraction in 2020. In the Eurozone, output is anticipated to grow 3.6%, following a 7.4% decline in 2020. Activity in Japan, which shrank by 5.3% during 2020, is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2021.
Aggregate GDP in emerging market and developing economies, including China, is expected to grow 5% in 2021, after a contraction of 2.6%, according to the World Bank prospects.
Near 8% growth forecast for China
China’s economy is expected to expand by 7.9% this year following 2% growth last year.
Excluding China, emerging market and developing economies are forecast to expand 3.4% in 2021 after a contraction of 5% in 2020. Among low income economies, activity is projected to increase 3.3% in 2021, after a contraction of 0.9% in 2020.
Debt concerns
The Prospects also examine how the pandemic has amplified risks around taking on increasing debt and its impact on long term growth.
“The pandemic has greatly exacerbated debt risks in emerging market and developing economies; weak growth prospects will likely further increase debt burdens and erode borrowers’ ability to service debt,” World Bank Acting Vice President for Equitable Growth and Financial Institutions Ayhan Kosesaid.
“The global community needs to act rapidly and forcefully to make sure the recent debt accumulation does not end with a string of debt crises. The developing world cannot afford another lost decade.”
Long-lasting effects
The pandemic is expected to leave long lasting adverse effects on global activity, the World Bank warns, with a likely slowdown in global growth stretching through the next decade, due to underinvestment, underemployment, and labour force declines in many advanced economies.
The global economy could be heading for a decade of “growth disappointments unless policy makers put in place comprehensive reforms to improve the fundamental drivers of equitable and sustainable economic growth”, said the World Bank press release.
Policy solutions
Policymakers need to continue to sustain the recovery, gradually shifting from income support to growth-enhancing policies, the World Bank said.
In the longer run, in emerging market and developing economies, policies to improve health and education services, digital infrastructure, climate resilience, and business and governance practices will help mitigate the economic damage caused by the pandemic, reduce poverty and advance shared prosperity, while in the context of reduced public spending and elevated debt, institutional reforms to spur organic growth are particularly important.
SEER SIGNS MOU WITH US-BASED BWAB INC., AND ITS EUROPEAN-BASED AFFILIATES FOR INTERNATIONAL ROLLOUT OF SEER’S TECHNOLOGIES – Organic Food News Today – EIN Presswire
Brexit leader Nigel Farage has said that the UK has “set the standard” for nations gaining independence from the European Union, predicting that with the current divides on the continent between east and west and north and south, the bloc will not even exist in ten years.
The UK finally left the EU’s institutions, with a deal, on December 31st, 2020, four-and-half years after the public voted 52 to 48 per cent to leave the bloc.
Speaking to LBC’s Iain Dale on Monday, Mr Farage rejected the notion that the UK was as “divided” as it was on June 23rd, 2016, pointing out that the actual proportion of Remainers who fully backed the European Project — “who wanted that flag, wanted that anthem, wanted people like [European Commission President Jean Claude] Juncker telling us what we can and can’t do” — was only “tiny”, and that many who voted to stay a member of the bloc did so out of fear of change.
Indeed, successive votes since the referendum — the European Parliament and the national elections — had demonstrated an increasing share of voters backing parties that pledged to deliver a full Brexit, defeating candidates advocating for a second referendum.
“The truth of it is that a very large number of people who voted Remain can now see that actually it’s more than possible for us to sign up to trade deals with the rest of the world, more than possible with a bit of will to come to, in most areas, a reasonable agreement with the EU itself,” Farage said.
The Brexiteer, who has been fighting in the political arena for 27 years for Britain’s emancipation from the bloc, said that those that may still support membership would dwindle further once they realise the power of independence.
Verhofstadt: Brits Chose Brexit to Affirm Their Right to Be Stupid, Next Gen Will Rejoin EU https://t.co/2invKDSRBD
“The point about becoming independent is that democracy becomes vibrant, democracy becomes real. We really will be in charge when we vote in elections of laws that really affect us. I just don’t see that being reversed,” he said.
He added: “The Brexit Wars are over. The bitterness, the division, the agony of four-and-a-half years of much of our establishment doing their best to overturn the democratic will of the people, that is over.”
Even if there were an active campaign to rejoin, there will not be a European Union to rejoin in ten years, Mr Farage predicted.
“Just look at what’s happening in Brussels: you’ve got the Poles and the Hungarians, vetoing the budget. You’ve got a eurozone, which is driving the south into deeper and deeper poverty,” he said, predicting that “at some point, Italy will just have to leave that eurozone”.
“I don’t think they’ll even be a European Union in ten years’ time. I think that we have set the standard.
“I think in a year or two’s time you will see a lot more mainstream opinion across European politics saying, ‘Do you know what? Why don’t we have a Europe of trade, cooperation, and friendship? Why don’t we have a Europe that my parents’ generation thought they were signing up to nearly 50 years ago?’”
Hands up for an attack on workers and migrants (Pic: Number 10 on Flickr)
Tory claims about an approaching glorious future after the trade deal with the European Union (EU) are nonsense.
Boris Johnson’s cheerleaders in the press are trying to bolster such myths.
After the deal was announced the Daily Mail front page claimed, “Get ready for blast off, Britain”. It added, “UK gears up for business boom with Brexit deal done.” Not to be outdone the Daily Express’s headline was “Boris heralds our new ‘golden age’”.
There will be no prosperity on the basis of anything the Tories manage. Whatever the specific effects of the deal, the government has already shown that it wants to impose pay freezes and cuts. It will stand aside as unemployment surges.
Its disastrous handling of coronavirus has hit poorer people hardest.
Rushed
The deal is set to be rushed through parliament on Wednesday, after just one day of debate. Johnson expects to win with a big majority
Johnson was pushed into a deal by fears about the chaotic alternatives without a deal. And the power of the EU extracted numerous concessions from the British government.
The government did not get what it hoped to achieve for the bankers and the hedge fund firms. Even on fishing, which Johnson sought to make a totemic issue, the government backed off from what it claimed to be its “red lines”.
The National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations (NFFO)—an employers’ organisation—claimed any gains were marginal. NFFO chief executive, Barrie Deas, said there was a growing feeling of disappointment and frustration in the industry.
But ultimately Johnson was prioritising political over economic factors. He hopes to pose as a nationalist champion and that the issue of Europe, which has repeatedly split the Tories, can be laid to rest.
But it was opportunistically used by Johnson to win the last general election with the slogan “Get Brexit done”. He may still find the issue is far from finished with years of joint committees and “clarifying” negotiations to come.
If Britain diverges from the EU’s regulations it could face tariffs—payments to export certain goods.
Left
It matters how the left and trade unions now respond.
There must be no backing for a deal that eliminates workers’ freedom of movement. This assault on migrant workers has been scandalously ignored or even supported by far too many on the left.
The deal will also be used by the Tories and the employers to attack workers on the basis of “making Britain more competitive”.
Some Tories and bosses hanker for Britain as “Singapore on Thames” after the break form the EU. There are immediate plans for ten “freeports” with tax concessions to businesses and weaker labour laws.
In the run-up to Christmas, for example, the Financial Times newspaper reported, “The Tories are drawing up plans to ‘turn London into a rival of Singapore’ over shipping registration.”
Altering the tax and regulation regime could be worth £3.7 billion to shipping bosses over three years.
But Labour is set to back Johnson’s deal.
Party leader Keir Starmer announced on Christmas Eve that his party will “accept and vote for” the deal. It’s an extraordinary turnaround from the man who took the lead in seeking to overturn the Brexit vote.
He was happy to undermine Jeremy Corbyn and demand a “people’s vote”. Now he hypocritically shifts.
Statmer does it on the pro-boss basis of avoiding a no deal that will hit “business”. He also believes workers are overwhelmingly supportive of racist ideas about migration and must be lured back to Labour by being as pro-nationalist as the Tories.
Starmer’s decision has faced some opposition.
On Tuesday a statement called for Labour not to fall into “the trap of rallying around this rotten deal”. It added that the deal is “designed to open the door to rampant economic deregulation—a loss of rights and protections for workers, the environment, food standards and many other areas of life”.
But it is supported by only three MPs. And it is the initiative of Another Europe is Possible, the group that helped to pressure Labour into adopting the disastrous policy of supporting a second referendum.
It brings together John McDonnell and the Blairite Lord Adonis.
It is opposition to the deal from the pro-EU side and based on the false premise that the EU is a defender of working class interests.
For years the left failed to change the terms of the debate about the EU. It allowed the issue to be divorced from wider issues.
Nobody should talk about a Brexit deal without saying that we now need a united fight against austerity, unemployment, racism, poverty and climate chaos.
This is urgent whatever the trade arrangements that bosses and their governments agree.
And socialists need to say that we don’t stand for the interests of financiers and corporations. We don’t believe that business must come first or that capitalism equals prosperity.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu hopes to discuss with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the security issues in the region and reforms on the path of Moldova and Ukraine to the EU during an official visit to Kyiv on January 12.
“We want to restore relations, because some work was done at the government level, but at the presidential level there were no meetings at all over these four years, and it is important for us to restore relations. We have many specific questions to which we must find answers. These are the issues of security in the region, and the issue of our way to the European Union, the reforms that we must introduce in order to bring our countries closer to the EU. And, of course, the issue of border delimitation, and the issue of hydroelectric power plants. That is, specific issues,” said Sandu in an interview with DW.
She stressed that it is important for Moldova to have good relations with both Romania and Ukraine.
“In January I will go to Kyiv to meet with Mr. Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, and this is just the beginning,” Sandu said.
As reported, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Diplomatic Advisor to President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva said that the newly elected President of Moldova Maia Sandu plans to pay an official visit to Ukraine on January 12, 2021.
