The “Global South” challenges the “Global North”, Thucydides’ Trap, BRICS vs. NATO – all these phrases refer, in fact, to China’s geopolitical moves as it enters the race with the United States for hegemon position. The race is not a sprint but an endurance marathon, with many obstacles and an unspecified time limit.
We are witnessing an attempt to reshape the global order. Whereas during the Cold War, the global balance was dictated by the rivalry between the Soviet Union and the United States, which controlled opposing blocs, we are now moving towards the re-emergence of a bipolar world, where the United States and China could share the leadership in a so-called “G-2”.
After the collapse of the USSR, the United States had no rivals and took on the role of undisputed global leader. By investing heavily in its military, it has secured military superiority and has managed to spread its strength to every corner of the globe. Now China is beginning to challenge American global dominance.
The Chinese Defense “White Paper” states that “China will never seek hegemony and will never pursue military expansion, now or in the future, regardless of its level of development.” However, with this denial, China has merely announced its aspirations. Being the only nation that has felt like stating that it does not aspire to global hegemony.
The US, on the other hand, has become comfortable in the position of hegemon and is no longer accustomed to dealing with independent power centers. US politicians are not used to formulating policy through multilateral consultations with other nations and this is already bothering the BRICS bloc.
Force projection
Through its recent foreign policy, the US has lost some of its global influence but has managed to retain key points of control – Taiwan, Israel, Eastern Europe, Australia. Yet it has lost Africa and substantial parts of the Middle East.
China instead is on the offensive, the Belt and Road Initiative, the BRICS alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the growing strategic cooperation with Russia, the internationalization of the yuan, the expansion of military power and the vigorous pursuit of scientific and technological autonomy are important steps taken by Beijing. This is seen across al fields, including quantum computing where the two powers aim to get ahead of each other.
If we stick strictly to force (military and economic), the United States leads the field. There is no other state that can project force in any area of the world and economically control more markets. The United States also leads the most powerful military alliances – NATO and AUKUS.
The Sino-US competition can be seen in many points around the globe and beyond the economic deferend can be seen diplomatic-military moves made through proxies. The best known inflection point is Taiwan, but not the hottest. At the moment, China is focusing on the Middle East, specifically the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
China is increasing its influence in the Middle East
Since becoming a net oil importer in 1993, China has procured almost half of its oil from the Middle East. By 2023, Saudi Arabia was China’s second largest oil supplier after Russia, accounting for 15% of imports. These energy ties paved the way for strong and diverse trade relations. In 2022 alone, trade between China and the Middle East topped $507 billion, doubling the 2017 figure and outpacing the growth rates of Chinese trade with other world regions.
As American influence in the Middle East has begun to wane, particularly following its withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 and, more recently, amid regional frustrations over its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, China has stepped up its diplomatic and security approaches to the region. While proceeding with caution, Beijing is steadily positioning itself to assume the US role in the Middle East.
China’s economic and political engagement in the Middle East has increased over the past decade, particularly in the wake of the Arab Spring and amid growing perceptions of US withdrawal from the region.
The Belt and Road Initiative, launched in 2013, has significantly increased China’s engagement in the region and propelled Beijing to become the leading foreign investor in the region since 2016. Initially focused on trade and energy sector investments, Beijing has broadened the scope of its regional engagement to encompass infrastructure, technologically advanced smart city projects, innovation hubs and 5G mobile networks.
As Beijing’s economic influence in the Middle East has grown, so has the recognition by regional powers of China’s strategic value. Middle Eastern leaders increasingly disillusioned with US policies – including the 2003 invasion of Iraq, support for the Arab Spring in 2011, the hasty exit from Afghanistan and withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with Iran – have turned to China.
For Gulf Cooperation Council countries[1] in particular, the relationship with China has become strategic rather than opportunistic. China’s ability and willingness to cooperate with regional actors without imposing political or human rights ideals aligns with the visions of Middle Eastern leaders. This strategic approach suggests a reorientation of regional relations and positions, with China gaining prominence as an economic partner.
China and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
China has become even more active in the Middle East since the Biden administration began increasing pressure on China in the Asia-Pacific region. This dynamic was highlighted by the outbreak of the Gaza war on October 7, 2023.
Despite China’s efforts to position itself as a regional mediator, its initial response to the Hamas attack on Israel was muted. Beijing notably refrained from directly condemning Hamas for the atrocities committed on October 7, avoiding any specific mention of the organization.
Disappointment and anger arose in Israel because of China’s lack of empathy, one-sided criticism of Tel Aviv and the fact that the United States was seen as a supporter of Israeli military actions in Gaza. A significant step in the evolution of Beijing’s position took place in February 2024, when China’s representative to the International Court of Justice affirmed the Palestinians’ right to self-determination, including the use of armed struggle, signaling more explicit support for Hamas.
For Beijing, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is less about the Palestinians or the Israelis and more about its position in the region, its interests in relation to Arab countries and Iran and the Global South, and its strategic position vis-à-vis the United States.
China has no shared history with Europe, no ancient wounds, no widespread concept of anti-Semitism or Holocaust memory.
Recently, and particularly during the Gaza war, China has used the conflict as a tool in its competition with the US. China has used the conflict to discredit the United States while strengthening its position.
An important objective of China has also been to secure Arab and Muslim support for its policies in Xinjiang[2], while dismissing Western and especially US criticism of Beijing’s human rights policies as hypocritical. As such, China’s strategy throughout the Gaza war has been one of alignment with the interests of the Arab world while differentiating its position from that of the US.
Moreover, China’s clear and calculated shift towards a more assertive and pro-Palestinian stance in the Israel-Hamas conflict also reflects the evolution of its strategic priorities and interests in the Middle East. This has shown that Israel does not occupy an important place in Beijing’s strategic calculus, and any deterioration in its relationship with Israel is seen as manageable within the broader regional and geopolitical game.
By organizing talks with Palestinian factions[3] China is trying to align itself with Arab nations that see Palestinian unity as essential to the rapprochement towards a Palestinian state and as a key to a stable Middle East.
America’s flashpoint is Tel Aviv
During an OEP visit to China in 1965, Mao Zedong said, “Imperialism fears China and the Arabs. Israel and Taiwan are the bases of imperialism in Asia. You are the front door of this great continent; we are the back door. They created Israel for you and Taiwan for us. The West does not really like us and we must understand that. The Arab war against the West is a war against Israel.”[4]
Now China believes it is powerful enough to spread force to various global points. Thus, the Beijing is using the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to keep the US in check. Beyond media support and positioning within the UN, China uses its allies to limit Israel’s moves as much as possible.
Pakistan, which tends to become a Chinese region, has already taken an important step against Tel Aviv. The Pakistani government has announced the formation of a committee to identify companies that financially support Israel’s war in Gaza and recommend a ban on their products, according to an aide to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif[5].
Islamabad has formally decided to recognize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a “terrorist,” declaring Tel Aviv a “war crimes entity.”[6]
South Africa filed a lawsuit against Israel, accusing it of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. The death toll in Gaza has exceeded 40,000,[7] according to health officials in the territory besieged and bombed by Israel.
South Africa’s case before the United Nations court in The Hague alleges that Israel has violated the 1948 Genocide Convention, which was established in the aftermath of the Holocaust, and calls on all countries to prevent the recurrence of such crimes.
Another country, an EU and NATO member, feverishly supporting Palestinian rights and accusing Israel of genocide is Spain, which has joined South Africa. Spain has also recently recognized the Palestinian state and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has just returned from a historic visit to China.
Among the countries susceptible to Chinese lobbying are Turkey (which has formally applied to join BRICS) and Norway[8] (which recently recognized Palestine).
China has managed in a relatively short time to put a lot of pressure on Israel and consequently on Washington. According to Axios[9], Tel Aviv is lobbying members of the US Congress to pressure South Africa to drop its legal proceedings at the International Court of Justice over the Gaza war, according to a telegram from the Israeli Foreign Ministry.
International pressure against Israel will increase in the coming period as China has a vested interest in keeping Washington occupied with the situation in the Middle East, a chapter the Americans had hoped to close in order to diminish US attention in the Asia-Pacific region.
If we look at the past, China has had significant success in applying a similar strategy when it was on the march to win African hearts and minds during the Mao period. A mix of local investment and aid, coupled with a strong disinterest in pushing local African leaders to pursue human rights reforms otherwise requested by American aid platforms, has allowed China to secure strategic UN positions via African counterparts in its efforts to keep Taiwan under control.
China has managed to find the US’s vulnerability and is exploiting it both directly and through proxies.
[1] https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/Pages/default.aspx
[2] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights
[3] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/23/china/hamas-fatah-palestinian-factions-beijing-intl-hnk/index.html
[4] https://unitedworldint.com/31959-chinas-position-on-the-palestinian-israeli-issue/
[5] https://www.arabnews.com/node/2552541/pakistan
[6] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240723-as-pakistan-labels-israels-pm-a-terrorist-it-must-keep-its-own-extreme-elements-under-control/
[7] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-07-25/
[8] https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-seeks-friendly-cooperation-with-norway-green-energy-evs-2024-09-09/
[9] https://www.axios.com/2024/09/09/israel-gaza-icj-genocide-un
[10]https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/06/why-strong-regional-value-chains-will-be-vital-to-the-next-chapter-of-china-and-africas-economic-relationship/
