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Currency war: Reality or fantasy?

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U.S. dollar banknote with map
Photo by Christine Roy on Unsplash

Pressrelease // Every economic cycle has its currency war. In the 1920s, France, Germany, and Belgium devalued their currencies to return to the gold standard, which had been abandoned during World War I. In the 1930s, major global economies resorted to competitive devaluations to recover the prosperity lost after the 1929 American stock market crash. In 2024, the strength of the dollar could trigger a new currency war, explains Johan Gabriels, Regional Director at iBanFirst, a leading provider of foreign exchange and international payment services for businesses.

  • In 2024, the strength of the dollar could trigger a new currency war. The market is concerned about the risk of competitive devaluations in Asia to counter the strong dollar.
  • A devaluation of the yuan could be the first domino to fall, allowing China to regain competitiveness and boost its export-driven economy to pre-pandemic levels.
  • iBanFirst analysts believe there’s little risk of a significant depreciation or devaluation of the yuan due to China’s favorable economic conditions.
  • As long as the US Federal Reserve does not move towards lowering rates—which is uncertain to happen this year—the strong dollar will remain a problem for China and the rest of the world.

Are we heading towards a new currency war? For now, only a few countries are intervening to counter the collapse of their currencies against the US dollar. These countries have one thing in common: they are all in Asia. Indonesia raised its rates in May to support the rupiah, while Japan is relying on direct yen purchases on the foreign exchange market.

Mixed success of Bank of Japan’ interventions

According to the latest estimates, the two interventions by the Bank of Japan earlier this month cost 60 billion dollars. Japan has ample foreign exchange reserves and, in theory, can continue to intervene. However, the effectiveness of a unilateral intervention is doubtful. In the past, successful interventions were coordinated and aligned with monetary policy. For Japan’s intervention to be effective, the US Treasury would also need to buy yen, which is not currently planned. Additionally, the Bank of Japan would need to further normalize its monetary policy, as an ultra-accommodative policy is incompatible with a strong currency in the long term.

Competitive devaluations in Asia 

What the market is concerned about is the risk of competitive devaluations in Asia to counter the strong dollar. A devaluation of the yuan could be the first domino to fall. It would allow China to regain competitiveness and boost its export-driven economy to pre-pandemic levels. Analysts have been fearing this scenario for months.

But is there a real risk? „We don’t believe so. Calls for a significant depreciation (or even devaluation) of the yuan ignore economic realities. China has a significant current account surplus, around 1-2% of its GDP. Its trade surplus is 3-4% of GDP, and the manufacturing trade surplus is over 10% of GDP. Given the size of the Chinese economy—18 trillion dollars, or 15% of global GDP—these surpluses are enormous”, says Johan Gabriels.

The risk of capital flight 

However, this does not mean that there are no problems. Many exporters are not converting their profits into renminbi. Due to interest rate differentials and a lack of confidence in Chinese policy, capital outflows are significant. In 2023, they reached their highest level in five years, reminding authorities of bad memories. 

Moreover, a yuan devaluation would only reinforce capital flight, as was the case in 2015-16. This painful moment in China’s economic history likely makes Beijing cautious in managing the exchange rate. Since the beginning of the year, China has mainly sought to keep the renminbi stable against the dollar without using the central bank’s ample foreign exchange reserves. Instead, it has relied on daily fixing and direct intervention in the public commercial banks’ market to signal that a yuan depreciation against the dollar is not desired.

Currency manipulation? 

Unlike the Trump era, the Biden administration seems content with the yuan’s level. China’s current account surplus is not high enough for the US Treasury to consider it a sign of currency manipulation. Additionally, China’s foreign exchange reserves growth is relatively stable, further indicating no manipulation. Lastly, Washington is well aware that the downward pressure on the yuan partly reflects the strong dollar.

As long as the US Federal Reserve does not move towards lowering rates—which is uncertain to happen this year—the strong dollar will remain a problem for China and the rest of the world. However, iBanFirst analysts doubt that the appropriate response to the strong dollar is a series of competitive devaluations, especially in China.

ICC seeking arrest warrants for Hamas leaders and Israel’s Netanyahu

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ICC seeking arrest warrants for Hamas leaders and Israel’s Netanyahu

In a statement, ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan said that there were reasonable grounds to believe that Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri (Deif) and Ismail Haniyeh “bear criminal responsibility” for murder, extermination and taking hostages – among numerous other crimes – since the Gaza conflict erupted in the wake of Hamas-led attacks in southern Israel on 7 October.

There are also reasonable grounds to believe that Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, Israeli Minister of Defence, are responsible for other crimes and crimes against humanity “committed on the territory of the State of Palestine”.

Starvation tactic alleged

These include “starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime…intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population [and] extermination and/or murder”.

Although the ICC is not a UN organisation, it has an agreement of cooperation with the United Nations. And when a situation is not within the court’s jurisdiction, the UN Security Council can refer the situation to the ICC, granting it jurisdiction.

To complement the allegations, Prosecutor Khan, a British national born in Edinburgh, noted that his Office had interviewed victims and survivors of the 7 October Hamas-led terror attacks in Israel. 

This included former hostages and eyewitnesses “from six major attack locations: Kfar Aza, Holit, the venue of the Supernova Music Festival, Be’eri; Nir Oz and Nahal Oz”.

‘Unfathomable pain’

“It is the view of my Office that these individuals planned and instigated the commission of crimes on 7 October 2023 and have through their own actions, including personal visits to hostages shortly after their kidnapping, acknowledged their responsibility for those crimes,” Prosecutor Khan said.

“Speaking with survivors, I heard how the love within a family, the deepest bonds between a parent and a child, were contorted to inflict unfathomable pain through calculated cruelty and extreme callousness. These acts demand accountability,” he added.

Turning to the hostages still believed to be held in Gaza, the ICC official noted that his Office had interviewed victims and survivors and that this information along with other sources indicated that they had been kept in inhumane conditions with some subjected to sexual violence, including rape.

Survivors’ courage

“I wish to express my gratitude to the survivors and the families of victims of the 7 October attacks for their courage in coming forward to provide their accounts to my Office,” Prosecutor Khan said. “We remain focused on further deepening our investigations of all crimes committed as part of these attacks and will continue to work with all partners to ensure that justice is delivered.” 

On the issue of the liability of the top Israeli officials Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant, the ICC Prosecutor alleged “starvation as a method of war”.

This and other crimes against humanity were allegedly committed “as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population pursuant to State policy”.

To reinforce the allegations, Mr. Khan cited “interviews with survivors and eyewitnesses, authenticated video, photo and audio material, satellite imagery and statements” which showed “that Israel has intentionally and systematically deprived the civilian population in all parts of Gaza of objects indispensable to human survival”.

Aid siege

Detailing the impact of “total siege” imposed by Israel on Gaza after 8 October 2023, the ICC request to judges explained that this involved “completely closing” the three border crossing points – Rafah, Kerem Shalom in the south and Erez in the north – “for extended periods and then by arbitrarily restricting the transfer of essential supplies – including food and medicine – through the border crossings after they were re-opened”.

Among other deprivations, the Israeli siege also cut off water and electricity pipelines to Gaza, the ICC Prosecutor continued, noting that Gazans also faced physical attacks when queuing for food while other “attacks on and killing of aid workers…forced many agencies to cease or limit their operations”.

The effects of this State policy were “acute, visible and widely known”, Mr. Khan said, noting the UN Secretary-General’s warning some two months ago that “1.1 million people in Gaza are facing catastrophic hunger – the highest number of people ever recorded anywhere, anytime” as a result of an “entirely man-made disaster”. 

Gravest offences

Although Israel has the right to defend itself under international law, Mr. Khan insisted that “intentionally causing death, starvation, great suffering” to civilians were clear breaches of the ICC’s foundational charter, signed in Rome in 2002. Israel is not a signatory to the Rome Statute while Palestine is.

“I have consistently emphasised that international humanitarian law demands that Israel take urgent action to immediately allow access to humanitarian aid in Gaza at scale. I specifically underlined that starvation as a method of war and the denial of humanitarian relief constitute Rome Statute offences.”

No one is above the law

In addition to the request to judges to issue warrants, the ICC statement noted that it was pursuing “multiple and interconnected additional lines of inquiry” into crimes committed since 7 October.

These include further allegations of sexual violence during the Hamas-led terror attacks and widespread bombardment in Gaza “that has caused and continues to cause so many civilian deaths, injuries and suffering”.

“Today, we once again underline that international law and the laws of armed conflict apply to all. No foot soldier, no commander, no civilian leader – no one – can act with impunity,” Mr. Khan said, while also highlighting his concern over escalating violence in the West Bank.

“Nothing can justify wilfully depriving human beings, including so many women and children, the basic necessities required for life. Nothing can justify the taking of hostages or the targeting of civilians.”

In a call to all parties in the Gaza conflict “to comply with the law now”, the ICC Prosecutor said his Office “will not hesitate to submit further applications for warrants of arrest if and when we consider that the threshold of a realistic prospect of conviction has been met”.

Unlike the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – which is the UN’s principal judicial organ for settling disputes between countries – the ICC tries individuals. The ICC is a permanent court based in The Hague, unlike temporary tribunals such as those set up to try grave crimes committed in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda.

According to ICC documentation, the court’s policy is to focus on those who “bear the greatest responsibility for the crimes” committed. No one is exempt from prosecution and there is no exemption for heads of State of Government.

The decision over whether to issue arrest warrants will be taken by the Pre-Trial Chambers, which must also confirm the alleged charges.

One an arrest warrant is issued and if the alleged perpetrator is arrested on the charges sought by the Prosecutor, a Trial Chamber is then created, headed by three judges.

Once the trial has ended, the judges “may impose a sentence of imprisonment for a specified number of years not exceeding a maximum of thirty years or life imprisonment”, the ICC said.

 

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World News in Brief: Myanmar violence intensifies, praise for Brazil refugee response, Baháí detainees in Yemen

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World News in Brief: Myanmar violence intensifies, praise for Brazil refugee response, Baháí detainees in Yemen

“Our team on the ground is deeply alarmed by the latest reports of further escalating violence and destruction taking place in Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships,” said UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric, briefing reporters at UN Headquarters on Monday.

Renewed violence and the destruction of property in Buthidaung has resulted in the displacement of potentially tens of thousands of civilians, mostly Rohingya. The Myanmar military has stoked tensions between Rohingya and ethnic Rakhine, said UN rights chief Volker Türk in a statement on Sunday.

“This is a critical period when the risk of yet further atrocity crimes is particularly acute,” he said, calling for rebels from the Arakan Army and Government forces to pause the fighting.

Food running out

In Rakhine’s capital, Sittwe, there are reports of food and cash shortages, soaring market prices, water scarcity and the spread of waterborne diseases. Humanitarian assistance and essential services have been heavily interrupted, said Mr. Dujarric.

“We call on all military and political leaders as well as community influencers to do their part to de-escalate and defuse attempts to reignite intercommunal tensions, particularly between ethnic Rakhine and Rohingya, and to avoid the repetition of past human rights atrocities that we have seen in Rakhine State,” said Mr. Dujarric.

Mr. Türk called on Bangladesh “to once again extend protection to vulnerable people seeking safety and for the international community to provide all necessary support.”

That call was echoed by head of the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, Filippo Grandi who said conflict and violence stemming from the brutal military crackdown by the ruling junta was “dramatically worsening”.

“I appeal to all parties to ensure the safety of civilians and humanitarians,” he said on X.

Brazil’s refugee response wins praise from senior UNHCR official

Brazil’s unified and inclusive refugee response, which focuses on protection and finding solutions for refugees, won praise from Assistant High Commissioner for Operations at UNHCR Raouf Mazou in a statement on Monday.

During a week-long visit to the country, he said “Brazil’s commitment to inclusive refugee policies shows that documentation, asylum and other forms of protection, combined with access to jobs, livelihoods, education and health, are the best way to arrive at solutions.”

The Assistant Commissioner’s trip included visits to “innovative projects” in São Paulo and Manaus that focus on employing refugees and assisting them in integrating into local communities. 

In Brasilia, the capital city, he met national authorities to open the second Cartagena+40 Process consultation – a process to mark the 40th anniversary of the 1984 Cartagena Declaration on Refugees – emphasising inclusion and integration.

Deluge in Rio Grande do Sul

Mr. Mazou’s visit occurred while the south of Brazil experienced heavy rains and floods leaving more than two million people affected, based on official data, including more than 100 fatalities.

The flooding has devastated areas in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, leaving some 43,000 refugees in need of international protection. 

UNHCR is working with authorities to deliver “relief items, technical assistance on shelter management and provision of reliable information to refugees and migrants”.

Yemen: Rights experts call for release of Baháí detainees

Top rights experts called on Monday for the urgent release of five people belonging to the Baháí faith one year after their abduction by de facto authorities in Yemen. 

The five detainees “continue to be at serious risk of torture”, said the independent rights experts, who include Nazila Ghanea, Special Rapporteur on freedom of religion.

In a statement alleging the “targeted persecution of religious minorities in Yemen”, the rights experts said the Ansar Allah movement – also known as the Houthis – were responsible.

History of hate speech

Other Baháí believers who have been released have faced severe pressure to recant their religious beliefs, the rights experts maintained, before warning that hate speech against minorities, including by the Houthi Grand Mufti of Sana’a, had made matters worse.

Special Rapporteurs are part of the Special Procedures of the Human Rights Council. They do not receive a salary for their work and serve in their individual capacity.

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Book Anticultism in France in 2024: Personal Stories and Battles

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In a world that often misunderstands and ostracizes unconventional beliefs, Donald A. Westbrook’s groundbreaking 2024 book, Anticultism in France, emerges as a beacon of scholarship and attention to the details.

Being released by Cambridge University Press (June, 2024), this publication explores the past and present state of new religious movements (NRMs) in France, providing readers with a thorough and captivating account that goes beyond clichés and biases. A part of the “Elements in New Religious Movements” collection, the book is extensively and skillfully crafted, making it ideal, for scholars, decision makers and the wider audience.

Its detailed examination of both the anticult movements in France and the specific case of Scientology serves not only as an academic treatise but also as a captivating story of resilience and human rights.

The Deep Roots of Anticultism in France

Westbrook starts off with an introduction that lays the foundation for delving into the book’s themes. The story quickly guides readers through the events linked to the Solar Temple and the subsequent emergence of MIVILUDES (Interministerial Mission, for Monitoring and Combating Sectarian Deviances) originally the whitewashed MILS, and which is starting to be the subject of scrutiny for financial scandals as reported by Le Monde.

This historical backdrop is crucial for understanding the hostile environment in which NRMs, including Scientology, have had to navigate their existence.

Through a blend of historical analysis and contemporary evaluation, Westbrook makes it clear how deep-seated fears and misconceptions have fueled France’s anticult stance. The book methodically traces these roots, providing readers with a nuanced understanding of why and how certain beliefs come to be viewed with such suspicion and hostility.

Scientology: A Case Study in Persecution and Resilience

In a captivating transition, Westbrook’s second chapter of ‘Anticultism in France‘ zooms in on Scientology. Here, the book shifts from broader historical narratives to a focused examination of one of the NRMs in France that has overcome more barriers but which recently made it to open an over 8000 square meters landmark church steps away from Stade de France, situating it in the heart of the upcoming 2024 Paris Olympics.

Scientology’s journey in France is a saga of legal battles, public denouncements, and extraordinary resilience. Westbrook painstakingly documents these struggles, from court cases to societal backlash, revealing the broader implications for other minority religions. By emphasizing the human element—stories of individual members and their personal trials—the book fosters a deeper empathy and understanding.

This chapter is particularly striking because it challenges readers to reconsider their preconceived notions about Scientology. Whether you view it with skepticism or curiosity, the book’s detailed historical account compels you to acknowledge the challenges faced by its members and to question the fairness of their treatment by the French state and specific elements of its society.

Reflections on the Future

Westbrook’s final chapter, “Reflections on the Future of New and Minority Religions in France,” provides a thoughtful and forward-looking analysis. Here, the book moves from historical recounting to strategic contemplation. What does the future hold for NRMs in a country with such a fraught relationship with religious diversity?

Westbrook isn’t afraid to tackle inquiries, rather he welcomes them, providing thoughtful forecasts and possible solutions. In this section, he urges policymakers, religious figures and the general people to promote a society that’s more accepting and empathetic. The book does not only record instances of persecution, it aims to provoke a daring path for transformation. It encourages readers to analyze the concepts of freedom critically and emphasizes the significance of protecting these liberties for everyone, no matter how unorthodox or unconventional their beliefs may seem.

The Human Impact

Westbrook’s writing in the book Anticultism in France is filled with a sense of respect for the people living their beliefs, even when facing undue consequences. This focus on connection may be considered one of the book’s most significant asset.

By presenting well-researched facts alongside personal stories and reflections, it makes the academic accessible and the complex comprehensible.

Westbrook’s narrative is not just about policies and prejudices; it’s about people—those who have suffered, resisted, and those who continue to believe against all odds. This perspective transforms the book into more than a historical or sociological study; it becomes a deeply human story about the quest for legitimacy and understanding in a world that can be unforgiving of difference.

Academic Rigor and Curiosity

The book is truly an academic accomplishment, showcasing years of dedicated research, thorough analysis and thoughtful writing. Donald Westbrook’s extensive list of references and documented sources give the work credibility and significance. It serves as a testament to the power of rigor paired with genuine curiosity.

For scholars and students alike, the book offers a wealth of knowledge and insights. It lays a groundwork, for further exploration and sparks fresh conversations and discussions. Westbrook’s talent in weaving vast amounts of information into a coherent and captivating story is truly praiseworthy.

Should you read this Book?

In today’s world, where false information and bias often easily and irresponsibly circulates, Westbrook’s book is a must-read for anyone interested in topics like religious freedom, human rights and social justice. It urges us to delve into the complexities of NRMs rather than just skimming the surface. It is written in a way that it is not just for scholars or those directly connected to NRMs, it’s for everyone who values understanding and living together in peace. Readers may feel prompted to step out of their comfort zones and consider the perspectives and rights of marginalized believers.

Donald A. Westbrook’s work “Anticultism in France” tells a story of resilience, challenges and prejudice, while picturing an inclusive future. For those seeking to broaden their knowledge about diversity and its obstacles, this book is an invaluable asset. If you believe, or not, that knowledge can nurture empathy and instigate change, I advise you to read Westbrook’s analysis and recounts, as one may, if that is possible, become more knowledgeable, empathetic and more humane.

Ankara: new failed coup attempt against Erdoğan?

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kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

The Turkish government has foiled what it described as a new coup attempt to overthrow the current regime by implicating people close to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in corruption cases to tarnish their image. Erdoğan summoned intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın and Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç to an emergency meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara late last Tuesday night, where they discussed the arrest and dismissal of several police officials.

Repetition of a previous attempt

The action follows the revelation by Nationalist Action Party leader Devlet Bahçeli at his party’s parliamentary group meeting on Tuesday lunchtime of a coup attempt similar to the corruption and bribery investigations of 2013. He said that a group of prosecutors and security officials linked to Fethullah Gülen’s organisation had fabricated corruption cases and illegal wiretapping to tarnish the image of people close to Erdoğan, but the government had managed to counter them at the time. Bahçeli said, “There is an ongoing conspiracy that cannot be eradicated by sacking just a few police chiefs. We are aware of the network of illegal connections, and the target is the People’s Alliance.”

Mass arrests

These events coincided with the announcement on Tuesday morning by the Turkish Interior Minister, Ali Yerlikaya, of the arrest of 544 people accused of belonging to the Gülen community, in a large-scale operation carried out in 62 Turkish provinces. The suspects are accused of attempting to infiltrate state institutions and using the “ByLock” application to communicate with each other, an application that the authorities have indicated was used by the perpetrators of the failed coup attempt in 2016.

The Ankara Prosecutor’s Office also announced on Wednesday the arrest of four employees of the Anti-Organised Crime Branch of the Ankara Security Directorate, including the deputy chief of the Ankara Police, Murat Çalık, and the director of the Anti-Organised Crime Branch, Kerem Öner. Turkish media reported that these police officers had lobbied to implicate people close to Erdoğan, such as head of presidential communications Fahrettin Altun, director of the president’s office Hasan Doğan and former interior minister Süleyman Soylu, in trumped-up cases to tarnish their reputations.

The roots of the affair

The roots of the events go back to 8 September 2023, when anti-organised crime teams in Ankara arrested the head of the ‘Kaplanlar’ criminal organisation, Ayhan Bora Kaplan, as he was trying to flee Turkey. He was sentenced to up to 169 years and 6 months in prison for two murders. In response to allegations of the involvement of certain police officers with the organisation, the General Directorate of Security in Ankara launched an administrative investigation, which led to the suspension of nine police officers, including a former director of the security branch and a former director of the arms and explosives branch of the Ankara police.

The police then arrested Serdar Serçelik, the organisation’s number two, and placed him under house arrest. However, he fled abroad after giving a 19-page testimony as a protected witness. In a video published after his flight, Serçelik said that some police officers had steered his testimony and forced him to make statements against ministers and politicians, referring to a conspiracy against the Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Action Party. Police and intelligence teams then began to identify the culprits on the basis of this information.

New smart data human mobility research project  

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black ImgIX server system
Photo by imgix on Unsplash

University of Liverpool researchers have been awarded funding from Smart Data Research UK (SDR UK) for a new project to quantify and adjust existing biases in smart data on human mobility.

5G data transmission / network

5G data transmission/network

Called DEBIAS, the project is led by Professor Francisco Rowe, who specialises in population data science and has specific expertise in human mobility, migration, and geographic data science. The project will also benefit from Dr Carmen Cabrera-Arnau’s expertise in human mobility and statistical modelling.

DEBIAS will use data on human mobility obtained from users of the social media platforms Facebook and X (previously Twitter) and from smartphone applications collected by the company Huq and explore how was this data obtained and what biases need correcting and why.

Professor Rowe, from the University’s Department of Geography & Planning and Geographic Data Science Lab, said: “I am delighted to receive this award for this innovative new data project. DEBIAS will deliver a new approach to assess and correct biases in geographically aggregated, privacy-preserving origin-destination mobility data, and will produce an open-source software package and training materials to facilitate its implementation.”

The project is one of seven projects funded through the ESRC Digital Footprints Accelerator Scheme, which is part of the UK’s national programme for smart data science. The scheme aims to unlock the power of data for the social good by facilitating digitally-generated data access and building capability for cutting-edge research.

Source: University of Liverpool

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European Fact-Checking Organisations Launch Climate Disinformation Database

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Image created with the AI of Adobe Firefly

22 May 2024 – The European Fact-Checking Standards Network, in association with participating member organisations, has launched the Climate Facts Europe database, supported by the European Climate Foundation. The project’s goal is to increase cross-country collaboration in detecting and debunking climate disinformation while promoting access to verified climate information.

Climate Facts Europe

Climate Facts Europe is a multi-faceted project, which includes a public-facing database for the European public to browse fact-checks related to climate disinformation. The project also establishes an alert system to raise the alarm to participating fact-checking organisations and the European Climate Foundation about viral cross-border climate disinformation campaigns and narratives.

Additionally, seven organisations selected from participating members will produce four long form reports using the cross-border data to be released about once a month covering a range of climate-related topics.

“We have already seen over the recent months that climate related disinformation is one of the major topics in the run up to the European Elections, affecting not only the political debate but also conversations about separate issues such as public health or civil liberties. With Climate Facts Europe we will be able to analyse this phenomenon in-depth and sound the alarm when we detect emerging false narratives”, said Carlos Hernández-Echevarría, Chair of the EFCSN Governance Body.

In the meantime, stay up to date with climate-related disinformation trends by subscribing to the EFCSN’s newsletter, where we will share climate disinformation narratives identified and debunked with the help of the database.

A joint project

Climate Facts Europe is a joint project of the European Fact-Checking Standards Network and its participating member organisations, supported by the European Climate Foundation.

The database can be accessed through climatefacts.efcsn.com.

The European Fact-Checking Standards Network is an association of fact-checking organisations who commit to the standards of independence, transparency, and journalistic quality outlined in the European Code of Standards for Independent Fact-Checking Organisations.

Rafah exodus passes 810,000, says UNRWA

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Rafah exodus passes 810,000, says UNRWA

“Every time families are displaced their lives are at serious risk. People are forced to leave everything behind looking for safety. But, there’s no safe zone,” the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, said in a post on X.

Accompanying the alert, images showed families with their belongings piled high on the back of cars and makeshift trailers; another photograph taken overlooking the coastline showed a mass of shelters for the displaced, all made out of simple sheeting and stretching all the way to the horizon.

According to the Gazan health authorities, at least 35,300 Gazans have been killed and more than 79,260 injured amid Israeli shelling since Hamas-led attacks in Israel on 7 October left some 1,250 dead and more than 250 taken hostage from southern Israel.

The latest data from UNRWA’s online logistics platform indicated that the delivery of humanitarian aid has stopped almost entirely via the main entry points to Gaza – the Rafah crossing and Kerem Shalom in the south.

Amid an escalation of military activity in eastern Rafah, no UN relief supplies reached the enclave on Sunday 19 May, and only 27 aid trucks entered via Kerem Shalom on Saturday, according to the UN agency portal, which also showed that only 33 additional aid trucks have used Kerem Shalom since 6 May, and none have entered via Rafah. 

In the northwest of the enclave, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) reported that it has been using Erez west – also known as Zikim – to transport supplies and “try to get enough food to stop famine in its tracks”. 

But, Matthew Hollingworth, WFP Country Director for Palestine, insisted that humanitarians needed additional entry points for aid.

“Every new entry point is a new artery, pumping lifeblood into Gaza, so we will work hard to continue to find new entry points and get more assistance in, at volume, consistently,” he said in the aid agency’s latest update.

 

Difficulty reaching the displaced

World Health Organization’s (WHO) Team Lead for Emergencies Communications, Nyka Alexander, recently visited Gaza and she noted in an interview on Monday with UN News that only a third of hospitals in Gaza – about 12 out of 36 – are functioning and constant fighting has made it difficult for healthcare workers to do their jobs. 

It has become increasingly challenging to treat displaced people since they are constantly on the move.

If there’s no continuity of care, who has your medical files? Who knows what treatment you need?” Ms. Alexander said. 

Further, she said, the recent closings of crossings in Gaza, have forced medical staff to ration already limited medical supplies, putting additional stress on health workers. 

She reiterated that nowhere in Gaza is safe and applauded humanitarian and healthcare workers who continue to work hard despite hugely difficult circumstances.

It’s really moving, actually, to see how people, despite the fact that it’s not safe, are doing everything they can to help others,” Ms. Alexander said. Listen to the full interview below:

 

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The Future of AI in Online Banking

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turned on monitoring screen
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 Artificial intelligence (AI) adoption has become a trend across different industries today, and the online banking sector is no exception. As technology keeps revolutionizing the financial industry, AI is poised to play a crucial role in the future of online banking. In fact, almost every single bank dabbled in generative AI in 2023, according to Forbes. On top of that, many reported impressive outcomes.  

In this article, we will look into the developments and potential of AI in online banking, specifically AI-powered chatbots, virtual assistants, and personal finance management tools. We will also examine the risks and challenges of using AI in the banking sector.  

AI-Powered Chatbots and Virtual Assistants

AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants are game-changers in customer service within the online banking sector. These systems can handle varying customer inquiries and tasks, providing real-time assistance and support. By tapping on natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning algorithms, chatbots can process and respond to customer queries like humans.  

Among the main advantages of AI-powered chatbots is their ability to provide personalized customer assistance. These chatbots can analyze customer data, transaction history, and preferences to customize their responses and recommendations. For example, customers inquiring about their account balance may also receive suggestions for relevant financial products or services based on their spending patterns and financial goals.

Furthermore, AI-powered chatbots are available 24/7, offering round-the-clock support to customers across different time zones. This accessibility improves the overall customer experience by providing timely assistance and reducing wait times for inquiries.

Personal Finance Management With AI

In addition to impacting customer service, AI is fundamentally changing the personal finance management game, offering innovative tools and applications to users. SoFi, a prominent financial services company, banks on this trend with its AI-powered personal finance app.

AI-powered personal finance app

SoFi’s AI-powered personal finance app stands out for its ability to reshape users’ financial habits. The app analyzes users’ spending habits through AI algorithms and identifies trends. It also delivers customized recommendations, from checking account promotions to investment opportunities, tailored to individual financial needs and goals.  

Personalized promotions and offers

One of the critical features of SoFi’s AI-driven app is its capability to offer targeted promotions and deals, particularly in checking account options. With the help of AI insights, the app identifies users who could benefit from specific banking products, such as high-yield checking accounts with competitive interest rates. 

By presenting personalized offers based on users’ financial profiles, the app helps individuals make informed decisions that align with their banking preferences and financial objectives.

Enhanced security measures

Beyond tailored recommendations, AI-powered personal finance apps like SoFi prioritize the security and privacy of users’ financial data. Robust security measures, including encryption protocols, biometric authentication mechanisms, and anomaly detection algorithms, are built into these apps. The goal is to avoid potential threats, such as data breaches and fraudulent activities, and ensure users’ financial information is safe.  

Smarter financial decision-making

Through its AI-driven functionalities, SoFi’s personal finance app enables users to take control of their financial futures. By providing actionable insights, personalized recommendations, and secure banking options, the app equips individuals with tools to make intelligent financial decisions, optimize their savings, and achieve long-term financial goals.

These apps demonstrate the immense potential of AI in personal finance management. Advanced algorithms and security measures allow these apps to offer personalized financial insights and tailored promotions and prioritize the security and privacy of users’ financial information. 

As AI keeps advancing, it is poised to change people’s financial management practices and improve their financial well-being. 

Potential Risks and Challenges

While AI in online banking holds great promise, it also introduces several risks and challenges that must be carefully addressed to ensure these systems’ security, fairness, and trustworthiness.

Data privacy and security risks

A massive data breach affected millions of AT&T customers early this month –- the first since January 2023’s cyber attack that impacted nine million users. With the rise of AI in online banking, data privacy and security issues couldn’t be more pronounced. 

AI systems heavily rely on user data for analysis and decision-making, making them potential targets for unauthorized access and data theft. Protecting sensitive information from malicious actors is critical to maintaining trust and confidence in online banking platforms.

Algorithmic bias

Another significant risk is algorithmic bias, where AI systems may inadvertently perpetuate or magnify existing biases in the training data. In online banking, this bias can show up through unfair or discriminatory outcomes, such as biased credit scoring or loan approval processes. Addressing algorithmic bias requires scrutiny of training data and continued monitoring to maintain fairness and equity in AI-driven decision-making.

Transparency and accountability challenges

Ensuring transparency and accountability in AI-powered banking systems poses a significant challenge. Customers may be understandably wary of AI-driven recommendations and decisions if they cannot discern the algorithms and processes behind them. Providing clear visibility into how AI systems operate, including the factors influencing their choices, is essential for building trust and confidence among users.

Mitigating risks and addressing challenges

To mitigate data privacy and security risks, online banking platforms must implement proven security measures, including encryption protocols, multi-factor authentication, and continuous monitoring of suspicious activities. By prioritizing the protection of user data, banks can minimize the likelihood of unauthorized access and data breaches.

Fairness and transparency initiatives

Addressing algorithmic bias requires proactive measures to identify and mitigate biases in AI algorithms. The solution may involve diversifying training data, implementing fairness-aware algorithms, and conducting regular audits to evaluate the impact of AI systems on different demographic groups. Additionally, promoting transparency through clear explanations of AI-driven decisions can enhance users’ understanding and trust in online banking platforms.

While AI holds tremendous potential for revolutionizing online banking, it is essential to acknowledge and address the associated risks and challenges. By prioritizing data privacy, fairness, transparency, and accountability, banks can build on the benefits of AI while mitigating potential harms, ensuring their customers’ continued trust and confidence in the modern banking ecosystem.

Fraud Detection and Prevention

A hacker – artistic impression. Image by Clint Patterson on Unsplash, free license

AI can make it easier for a cybercriminal to launch an attack, but it can also bolster a target’s defenses. The financial sector increasingly relies on AI algorithms as a powerful defense mechanism against these threats. Mastercard, for example, has created its own generative AI model that can boost fraud detection success by up to 300 percent

Through machine learning and predictive analytics, AI-powered fraud detection systems can identify suspicious transactions and forecast potential risks, allowing for proactive intervention to prevent financial losses. By swiftly flagging dubious activities, these AI systems serve as a crucial safeguard, shielding customers and banks from the detrimental impacts of fraud.

Automated Financial Advisory Services

The emergence of robo-advisors, driven by AI technologies, marks a seismic shift in the financial advisory services within online banking. These innovative platforms use sophisticated algorithms to evaluate individual customers’ financial backgrounds, considering factors such as their current financial status, risk appetite, and investment objectives. 

With these insights, robo-advisors deliver personalized investment recommendations and tailored portfolio management services. This feature democratizes access to wealth management tools and substantially lowers the costs of traditional human-led advisory services. As a result, a broader spectrum of clients can now avail themselves of these cost-effective and accessible investment solutions.

Regulatory Compliance and Risk Management

With stringent regulatory requirements and escalating complexities in financial markets, banks are increasingly adopting AI technologies to bolster their regulatory compliance and risk management frameworks. 

These advanced systems are adept at efficiently processing vast quantities of data, enabling banks to handle the challenges of anti-money laundering (AML) compliance, know-your-customer (KYC) verification, and risk assessment with unparalleled precision and efficiency. 

Through AI, banks can identify potential compliance risks and deviations from regulatory standards in real-time, thus fortifying their defenses against operational and reputational risks. By using AI-powered solutions, banks can maintain regulatory compliance and cultivate an environment of trust and transparency, safeguarding both their interests and those of their customers.

The future of AI in online banking holds immense potential for revolutionizing how customers interact with financial institutions and handle their money. AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants offer personalized assistance and support, while AI-driven personal finance apps increase users’ financial intelligence and potential.  

However, banks and financial institutions must address AI risks and challenges, including data privacy, algorithmic bias, and transparency. Together, they can improve AI’s potential and enhance customers’ trust and confidence by prioritizing ethical practices and implementing solid security measures.

AI undoubtedly looks set on revolutionizing online banking, opening new avenues for more innovative and efficient customer service, personal finance management, and beyond. As technology keeps changing, AI will be crucial in the future of banking.



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With Gaza on the brink, hostage talks must resume, Security Council hears

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With Gaza on the brink, hostage talks must resume, Security Council hears

Tor Wennesland, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, underscored the need for continuing the vital discussions, which have been supported by Egypt, Qatar and the United States.

If talks do not resume, I fear for the worst for the beleaguered and terrified civilians in Rafah, for the hostages held in unimaginable conditions for more than 225 days, and for an overstretched humanitarian operation that remains on the brink in the Gaza Strip,” he said.

‘Immediate priority, saving lives’

Over 1.2 million Palestinians displaced from elsewhere in Gaza have been sheltering in Rafah, with over 810,000 displaced again since the Israeli military offensive there began on 6 May.

“Saving lives and addressing the critical needs in Rafah and Gaza more broadly must remain our immediate priority,” Mr. Wennesland stressed.

“At the same time, we must not lose sight of the risks that these immediate threats pose to prospects for a resolution to this conflict and for longer term peace and stability in the region.”

Edem Wosornu, Director of Operations at OCHA, briefs the Security Council.

‘Running out of words’

Also briefing ambassadors, Edem Wosornu, Director of Operations at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Rafah and the wider Gaza Strip.

To be frank, we are running out of words to describe what is happening in Gaza. We have described it as a catastrophe, a nightmare, as hell on earth. It is all of these, and worse,” she said, adding that the situation deteriorates by the day.

More than 35,000 people have been killed and 79,000 wounded, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health.

‘Committed to stay and deliver’

Ms. Wosornu underscored that the UN and relief partners “are committed to staying and delivering”.

She welcomed the aid shipment via the floating dock set up by the US, adding however, that due to the current closure of the Rafah crossing and limited access via Kerem Shalom and Rafah, humanitarians lack the supplies and fuel “to provide any meaningful level of support”.

The senior OCHA official reiterated that civilians, their houses and the infrastructure they depend on must be protected, and that rapid, unimpeded passage of aid into and within Gaza must be facilitated.

She also highlighted the need for sufficient funding, particularly for the UN agency assisting Palestine refugees (UNRWA) “the central pillar of our aid operation”.

‘Deadly consequences of inaction’

In his briefing, Mr. Wennesland emphasized that a lasting solution in Gaza requires a “fundamentally political” approach.

He highlighted the importance of the new Palestinian Government, which includes eight ministers from Gaza, and its potential to unify Gaza and the West Bank politically, economically, and administratively.

Urging the international community to support the new Government, the senior UN official also underscored the urgency of establishing a viable political framework to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and achieve a two-State solution.

Day after day we are witnessing the deadly consequences of inaction. Now is the time to lay the foundations for a better future for Palestinians, Israelis and the broader region. The UN will continue to support all such efforts,” he concluded.

Special Coordinator Tor Wennesland briefing the Security Council.

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