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China’s mediating role in Iran-Saudi deal signals a wider shift from wolf warrior to more constructive diplomacy

Iran and Saudi Arabia’s agreement to resume diplomatic relations after years of clashes caught many by surprise – especially due to the Chinese role in mediating between the parties, leaving the United States on the sidelines.

The deal was described by some as a ground-breaking achievement that will change the entire geopolitical architecture in the Middle East, with ramifications for the United States’ posture in the region.

In fact, the agreement did not turn Iran and Saudi Arabia from foes to friends, nor did it change the multifaceted approach of Middle East countries.

Moreover, China’s active diplomacy should not have come as a surprise; rather, it signaled another step away from “wolf warrior” to more constructive diplomacy, not only regarding the Middle East but globally.

To be realistic, China is not trying to replace the United States as a global peace broker but it is very capable of identifying global opportunities to extend its influence and enjoy the fruits of work done by others.

In addition, any promotion of stability is crucial to the Chinese economy – and equally important is to improve its global image.

For example, recently China presented a “peace plan” to end the war in Ukraine. Although that was mostly a smoke screen to legitimize Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, it is worth paying attention to China’s efforts to present itself as a balanced and responsible power.

Another example is the Chinese proposal to mediate between Israel and the Palestinians, recycling old principles that other countries already tried with zero success.

Beijing’s renewed diplomatic activism is aimed at shaping a new diplomatic narrative of China’s global role, primarily focused on the Global South.

Early signs of this diplomatic activism could be found at the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress last October. The changes made to the party and its organs were meant to create a clearer separation between the defense apparatus and the diplomatic circle.

The appointments made in March this year to China’s diplomatic cadre showed Xi’s focus on relations with the US and economic development.

Qin Gang, the new minister for foreign affairs and former ambassador to the US, was promoted to the rank of state councilor. Both Qin and his immediate predecessor Wang Yi, also a state councilor, have extensive experience in American affairs and both hold more power within the party than Wang’s predecessors.

In contrast, Zhao Lijian, who as Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman had personified more confrontational wolf warrior diplomacy, was demoted in January to a position overseeing ocean affairs.

Since March, the two senior diplomats have been pushing harder to realize an updated diplomatic vision advanced by President Xi in three core documents: Global Civilization Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Development Initiative.

All three emphasize the importance of worldwide cooperation and development while respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.

Although the three initiatives align with United Nations’ sustainable development goals, many Western countries remain skeptical about China’s real intentions or its ability to realize them. In the Global South, however, countries that are not willing to choose sides in the great power competition but need financial support are much more receptive.

Although Global South countries are aware of the complexity of engaging China, they are concerned more about solving their immediate economic challenges. China can offer them solutions without preconditions – capital for infrastructure projects and investments in manufacturing and services sectors.

In the Middle East, the symbolic mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a sign of China’s growing influence in the region over the last decade. Last month, it was reported that China has resumed construction on a military base in the United Arabs Emirates. Earlier this year, China sealed several deals and agreements with Saudi Arabia, including US$50 billion worth of investments.

This trend is very evident in South Asia as well, with China already deeply invested in Sri Lanka and Pakistan while also extending its reach to Nepal and Bangladesh.

In the case of Bangladesh, China acknowledges the geostrategic importance and bright prospects the growing economy can offer but faces strong competition from India and Japan. The prime minister of Bangladesh is wisely balancing between these powers to promote win-win cooperation.

What we see in these two regions is playing out across the entire Global South and demonstrating that China’s new active diplomacy focused on cooperation rather than division is proving quite attractive.

In this context, public disagreements between the US and Global South countries (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Bangladesh, to name a few) are used effectively by China to expand its influence.

If the United States wishes to counter this trend, it should adopt a more constructive approach and manage disagreements behind closed doors. Otherwise, the US will find itself caught unaware in future developments as well.

Do you know what the moon smells like?

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News desk

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10 May 2023

Have you ever wondered what the moon smells like?

In an article for Nature magazine, French “fragrance sculptor” and retired scientific consultant Michael Moiseev says his latest creation was inspired by a description of the lunar surface by one of the first humans to walk on the moon more than half a century ago.

“I based the smell I produced – like that of secondhand smoke – on Buzz Aldrin’s description of what he felt when he took off his helmet in the lunar module on the Moon in 1969,” Moiseev wrote.

The consultant is working on the fragrance for the Space City museum in Toulouse, France, which is close to where he lives and works.

In his 2009 book Magnificent Desolation, Buzz Aldrin, who was the second man to set foot on the lunar surface, recalled that when he and fellow pioneer astronaut Neil Armstrong returned to their lander and realized they were covered in moon dust, they were greeted by “a sharp metallic smell, something like smoke or the smell in the air after a firecracker goes off”.

In a 2015 interview with Space.com, Aldrin elaborated on his description of the lunar aroma, describing it as smelling “like burnt charcoal or like the ashes that are in a fireplace, especially if you sprinkle a little water on it.”

Aldrin is not the only Apollo astronaut who commented on the smoke-like smell of the lunar regolith, writes hicomm.bg.

“All I can say is that everyone’s immediate impression was that the smell was smoke, not that it was ‘metallic’ or ‘pungent,'” Harrison “Jack” Schmidt, an astronaut from the ” Apollo 17,” which participated in one of the last missions to the moon in 1972. “The smell of second-hand smoke is probably more etched in our memories than other such smells.”

Unless spaceflight technology rapidly becomes cheaper and more accessible in the next few decades, most of us won’t have the chance to ever smell the moon for ourselves. But luckily, we may be able to smell an imitation in Toulouse, France, or anywhere else where skilled “fragrance sculptors” simulate the scent of moon dust.

Photo by Joonas kääriäinen:

1 in 3 children overweight in the European region: WHO report

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10 May 2023

1 in 3 children overweight in the European region: WHO report

The WHO European Regional Obesity Report 2022, was launched by the spouses of 16 European leaders and Heads of State, in the Croatian capital.

Childhood obesity data for WHO’s European Region, paints an alarming picture.

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Challenging environment

“Our children are increasingly growing up in environments that make it very difficult for them to eat well and be active. This is a root cause of the obesity epidemic,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe.

“As societies and countries, we have so far failed to reverse the rising rates of childhood obesity, and that’s why WHO/Europe is here in Croatia, at the invitation of Professor Milanović, spouse of the President, to galvanize political support for this truly insidious public health crisis before it becomes even more difficult to address.”

Dangerous projections

Based on current trends and looking exclusively at obesity in the WHO European Region, which covers 53 countries across Europe and Central Asia, the World Obesity Atlas 2023 published by the World Obesity Federation, projects that between 2020 and 2035, there will be:

a 61% increase in the number of boys living with obesity,
a 75% increase in the number of girls living with obesity,
with a total 17 million boys and 11 million girls aged 5-19 living with obesity in the region in 2035.
Issues involving being overweight and obesity across all age groups are projected to cost the WHO European Region $800 billion annually, by 2035.

Identifying solutions

WHO European Region has identified three specific actions to counter current projections and help prevent this silent epidemic from getting worse:

Prevention is better than cure: efforts to reduce childhood obesity must start early, right from pregnancy and early childhood. Prevention needs to focus on good nutrition at all stages of a child’s life. Prevention efforts are also needed in homes, schools, and the wider community.

Regulating the food and beverage industry: the most effective policies to tackle childhood obesity include imposing a tax on sugary drinks, requiring clear front-of-package labelling, and restricting marketing of unhealthy foods to children.

Promoting physical activity: this includes better urban design and transportation policies, physical activity in the school curriculum and extra-curricular activities, and clear messaging to support active lifestyles throughout the life course.

The link between obesity and other diseases

Being overweight and obesity are among the leading causes of death and disability in the European Region, with recent estimates suggesting they cause more than 1.2 million deaths annually, corresponding to more than 13% of total mortality.

Obesity increases the risk for many noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases.

Obesity is also considered a cause of at least 13 different types of cancer and is likely to be directly responsible for at least 200,000 new cancer cases annually across the Region, with this figure set to rise further in the coming years.

Also, overweight people and those living with obesity, have been disproportionately affected by the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, often experiencing more severe disease and other complications.

“Because obesity is so complex, influenced by different factors like genetics, environment, and socioeconomic status, no single intervention can halt its rise,” explained Dr Kluge.

“Any national policies aiming to address the issues of overweight and obesity must have high-level political commitment behind them. They should also be comprehensive, reaching individuals across the life course and targeting inequalities.”

Locust outbreak in Afghanistan threatens wheat harvest

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10 May 2023

Locust outbreak in Afghanistan threatens wheat harvest

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) sounded the alarm on Wednesday after locusts were spotted in the country’s north and northeast. FAO said that a “full outbreak” this year could destroy up to 1.2 million metric tonnes of wheat, or a quarter of the total annual harvest.

FAO Representative in Afghanistan Richard Trenchard said that together with partners, the agency was racing to help reduce the impact of the outbreak.

With pesticides in short supply, thousands of people in communities across the affected provinces were working “day and night” to eradicate the pests using “traditional mechanical control methods” before they become adults and begin to swarm, he said.

Left untreated, the Moroccan Locust population could increase 100-fold in the next year, according to FAO.

Earlier this year, the UN World Food Programme warned that six million Afghans were one step away from famine.

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‘Huge concern’

Sightings of locusts at different development stages have been made in Badakhshan, Badghis, Baghlan, Balkh, Kunduz, Samangan, Sar-e-Pul and Takhar, with fresh reports coming in from Heart and Ghor provinces.

“The reports of Moroccan Locust outbreak in Afghanistan’s wheat basket is a huge concern”, said Mr. Trenchard.

“The Moroccan locust eats more than 150 species of plants, including tree crops, pastures and 50 food crops, all of which grow in Afghanistan. It represents an enormous threat to farmers, communities and the entire country,” he added.

He noted that the last two big infestations which took place 20 and 40 years ago, cost the country an estimated 8 per cent, and 25 per cent of production.

“Harvest forecasts this year are the best we have seen for the last three years – but this outbreak threatens to destroy all these recent gains and dramatically worsen the food insecurity situation later this year and into next year,” the FAO Representative continued.

The Moroccan Locust is ranked among the most economically damaging plant pests anywhere in the world, and the value of the potential loss, adds up to between $280 million and a staggering $480 million, going by today’s prices, FAO warned.

The agency said that the year had seen “perfect” conditions for a locust outbreak so far, in the north and northeast, with over-grazing, drought and very limited control measures, creating an “ideal environment for locusts to hatch and swarm.”

Moroccan locusts are poured into a pit during mechanical control in Baghlan, Afghanistan.

Swinging into action

“The alarm bells rang late, but FAO, its incredible NGO partners, local communities and local authorities sprang into immediate action,” said Mr. Trenchard.

“Chemical supplies were low across the country so we were forced to focus on traditional ‘mechanical control’ methods to reduce the impact of the outbreak.”

He said that cash-for-work had been a way “to put money into the pockets of farmers most at risk while accelerating mechanical control in communities across the North and Northeast regions”, and there had been “a strong, rapid and encouraging response from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, although their capacity to respond is heavily constrained by a lack of resources”.

Ominous threat

Typically, after decimating pasture, large locust hopper bands and adult swarms move down to cropland areas and eat rain-fed and irrigated wheat and other crops.

FAO warned that there is not a single crop which is spared from Moroccan Locust damage.

If numbers do increase up to 100-fold, it would create even bigger problems for agriculture and food security in Afghanistan, and neighbouring countries.

If the Moroccan locust population is left untreated, it could increase its numbers by 100-fold in the next year, creating even bigger problems for agriculture and food security for Afghanistan and that of its neighbours.

“Chemical control methods are far more effective than mechanical control”, said Mr. Trenchard.

“Afghanistan used to have a very strong locust control system in place. But this has been heavily eroded in the last two years. At this point in time, all we can hope is that the mechanical control approaches will reduce the overall impact of the swarms. But we must start now to prevent 2024 from seeing even bigger outbreaks”, he concluded.

Russia must provide ‘urgent and comprehensive’ care to opposition leader Navalny: Rights experts

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10 May 2023

Russia must provide ‘urgent and comprehensive’ care to opposition leader Navalny: Rights experts

Alice Edwards, who is officially known as the Special Rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment, said she was “distressed by the deteriorating state of Mr. Navalny’s health and the apparent lack of satisfactory diagnosis and medical treatment”.

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‘A form of torture’

In a statement also backed by six of her fellow Human Rights Council-appointed experts, she said that the alleged placement of the Russian politician, lawyer and anti-corruption campaigner in isolation on 11 separate occasions, amounting to 114 days in solitary confinement over seven months, “appears disproportionate” and would amount to a form of torture, if confirmed.

“Mr. Navalny is reportedly suffering from serious ill-health, including chronic spinal disease and problems related to neurological damage,” Ms. Edwards said.

The jailed leader returned to Russia in 2021 from receiving extensive medical treatment in Germany, after what laboratory tests indicated had been an attempt to poison him with a nerve agent, while in Siberia in August 2020.

He was immediately arrested after resolving to fly home to Russia, from Germany.

Jailed

The 46-year-old is serving concurrent sentences of 11.5 years for fraud and contempt of court – on charges which he said were trumped up to remove him from public life.

Russia has denied all previous allegations that any prison employees have mistreated Mr. Navalny, saying that he has been given access to medical treatment when needed.

Immediate care needed

“He must immediately and continuously be provided with adequate care, including comprehensive medical check-ups, treatment and monitoring of his health situation in a civil hospital.”

She also raised the cases of three of his political supporters, who are also being held in Russian jails – Liliya Chanysheva, Vadim Ostanin and Daniel Kholodny.

The Special Rapporteur said their cases should be “promptly, thoroughly and impartially investigated.

Release supporters ‘without delay’

“If it is found that these individuals are being arbitrarily deprived of their liberty, they should be released without delay.

She said in the case of Mr. Ostanin, whose condition is reportedly deteriorating, Russia “should as a matter of urgency provide adequate medical care in a civil hospital”.

Liliya Chanysheva is the previous head of Mr. Navalny’s office in the city of Ufa. She was arrested on charges of managing a “structural subdivision” of an extremist group in November 2021, said the UN rights office, OHCHR.

Mr. Ostanin, ran the Navalny office in the city of Byisk, and was arrested on similar charges in March 2022.

Mr. Kholodny, an employee of Mr. Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, was arrested at the same time on charges of belonging to an extremist group, and for allegedly providing or collecting money to finance an extremist organisation, OHCHR said.

Concerns registered

The Special Rapporteur and other experts have been in direct contact with the Russian Government about these cases “and will continue to monitor them.”

Special Rapporteurs and other UN Human Rights Council-appointed rights experts, work on a voluntary and unpaid basis, are not UN staff, and work independently from any government or organisation.

Violence in Sudan likely to spark record levels of hunger

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10 May 2023

Violence in Sudan likely to spark record levels of hunger

In an alert on the situation, the World Food Programme (WFP) said that it expected between two and 2.5 million more people to face acute hunger in the coming months, because of conflict that erupted on 15 April between forces loyal to rival Generals Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

This development would take the already dire food insecurity in Sudan to a “record high”, WFP said, with two-fifths of the country’s population affected.

According to the UN agency, the biggest spikes in food insecurity could occur in West Darfur, West Kordofan, Blue Nile, Red Sea and North Darfur states.

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‘Huge’ needs, scarce resources

Meanwhile, the UH High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi shared on Twitter that more than 150,000 people have now fled Sudan – both Sudanese citizens and refugees hosted in the country.

“Needs are huge. Resources are scarce. Aid is required, urgently!” Mr. Grandi wrote.

Soaring food prices

UN humanitarians expect the price of basic food items to increase by 25 per cent in the next three to six months.

If the situation in the country bars farmers from accessing their fields and planting key staples between May and July, food prices could rise even more, WFP said.

Lifesaving aid

The UN agency has resumed its operations in Sudan, after a temporary pause following the killing of three of its aid workers at the start of the conflict. Since last week, and despite a dire security situation, WFP has reached over 35,000 people with food assistance.

The aid is a lifeline for the most vulnerable, including families who have recently fled the conflict, refugees living in Sudan and internally displaced people and their host communities.

Overall, the agency aims to support 4.9 million vulnerable people in areas where the security situation allows, in addition to “preventing and treating moderate acute malnutrition” for 600,000 children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women.

WFP also said that the UN Humanitarian Air Services (UNHAS), which it manages, is starting “regular” air connections between Port Sudan and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to enable the “safe transportation of frontline humanitarians and critical aid”.

WFP staff monitor emergency food distribution at a displaced camp in Sudan.

Support for neighbouring countries

The UN agency is also providing emergency food assistance to thousands who have fled Sudan to neighbouring Chad, South Sudan, Egypt and the Central African Republic, amid dire funding shortages.

In South Sudan for instance, where more than 40,000 returnees have fled across the border, WFP says that it is “cash-strapped” and that any extra pressure on resources could force it to take food and funding from others to support new arrivals.

According to figures from the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR’s data portal, the largest outflows from Sudan have been to Egypt, which has seen the arrival of over 68,000 Sudanese refugees and close to 5,000 refugees of other nationalities fleeing the fighting.

Last week, the agency appealed for $445 million to support the displaced until October.

Real household income rises in the second half of an otherwise weak 2022

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Newsdesk

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10 May 2023

Real household income per capita grew by 0.6% in the OECD in the fourth quarter of 2022, exceeding growth in real GDP per capita of 0.1% (Figure 1). Despite moderate growth in the third and fourth quarter, on an annual basis 2022 real household income per capita fell by 3.8% in the OECD, the largest annual decline since the beginning of the series.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Real household income rises in the second half of an otherwise weak 2022 — Real household income rises in the second half of an otherwise weak 2022 9

Household income results varied widely across OECD countries in Q4 2022. Of the 21 countries for which data is available, eight recorded an increase in real household income per capita, while the other 13 recorded a fall. Among G7 economies for which data is available, the United Kingdom saw the largest increase in real household income per capita in Q4 2022 (1.2%), driven by wage growth and government support for household energy consumption. Canada, France and the United States also reported increases in real household income per capita, exceeding the performance of GDP per capita, which grew by 0.5% in the United States and contracted in Canada and France (Figure 1). Conversely, real household income declined by 3.5% in Italy as spiking energy prices in Q4 2022 led to high inflation, undermining household income when measured in real terms.

In 2022 as a whole, real household income per capita fell by 3.9% in the G7 economies (Figure 2). The largest decrease was in the United States (-6.0%), where COVID-19 related government assistance paid to households in 2021 ceased. Among other OECD countries (Figure 3), Chile saw the largest decline in real household income per capita in 2022 (-15.1%), driven by the discontinuation of pandemic-related early pension withdrawals permitted in 2021.Even in economies that were not affected by the end of pandemic-related assistance programmes, increases in inflation undermined household incomes in real terms in 2022[1], despite the growth in GDP per capita.

[1] More information on the role inflation plays when measuring household economic well-being is available in this blog piece.

Who is Maria Gabriel?

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Newsdesk

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10 May 2023

Maria Ivanova Gabriel is the proposal of the first political force in the parliament for Prime Minister of Bulgaria. This became clear from the rostrum of the Bulgarian National Assembly.

GERB leader Boyko Borisov proposed EU Commissioner Maria Gabriel as prime minister from the rostrum of the parliament, reports OFFNews.

Yesterday, May 9, 2023, Boyko Borisov announced that there will be a government with a prime minister nominated by them, who will be presented to the parliamentary groups. He described the candidate as “undisputed” and a person who can lead the country out of the economic crisis, work on the adoption of the laws on PMV and bring the country into the Eurozone and Schengen. Borisov described their nomination as a “smart and handsome” person.

She was born on May 20, 1979 in Hadjidimovo. In 1997, he graduated from the “Dr. Petar Beron” Language High School, Kyustendil, and in 2001 he obtained a bachelor’s degree in “Bulgarian and French Philology” at the “Paisii Hilendarski” University of Plovdiv.

He continued his education at the Institute of Political Sciences in Bordeaux, France, where he studied international relations, history of European institutions, political sociology, comparative politics. He completed his MA in “Comparative Politics and International Relations” at the Doctoral Academy of Political Sciences, Bordeaux in 2003. From 2004 to 2008, he was an assistant researcher at the Institute of Political Sciences in Bordeaux.

From 2012 to 2014, she was the coordinator of the EPP in the Committee on Women’s Rights and Gender Equality of the European Parliament.

On October 19, 2012, Maria Gabriel /Nedelcheva by father/ was elected as the vice-president of the EPP Women.

In June 2013, she was elected MEP of the Year in the Gender Equality category.

From July 7, 2017 to December 1, 2019, she was European Commissioner for the Digital Economy and Society in the Juncker Commission. He then became European Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth in the Von der Leyen Commission.

A central place in its extra-parliamentary activity is occupied by initiatives aimed at young people.

According to the EC website, her responsibilities are:

Ensuring rapid agreement on the future Horizon Europe program and its full implementation.

Securing investment flows for ground-breaking research and cutting-edge innovation, including within the framework of the European Innovation Council.

Development of the European research area in cooperation with the member states.

Ensuring complementarity between research priorities and the economy.

Leading the Commission’s work on the creation of a European Education Area by 2025.

Promoting excellence and networking between European universities and implementing the European Universities initiative.

Update the digital education action plan and raise awareness about misinformation and other online threats.

Ensuring the full implementation of the new European agenda for culture, promoting the creative sector and promoting the Creative Europe programme.

Promoting sport as a means of inclusion and well-being, extending the EU Sports Awards initiative under the motto #BeInclusive and the European Week of Sport.

Strengthening international cooperation in the field of education, scientific research, innovation and culture.

Maria Gabriel is married with one child.

Among her indisputable advantages are that she is quite well educated and has an enviable experience in European institutions. He knows the workings of the union inside out and can do a lot of work on passing the laws needed to get the Recovery and Resilience Plan funds.

According to informed sources, the idea to propose a young, educated woman came from the German party foundations, which have expertise in Bulgaria and influence in GERB.

Photo credit: commissioners.ec.europa.eu/mariya-gabriel_bg

Tonia Kiousopoulou, Emperor or Manager: Power and Political Ideology in Byzantium before 1453. La Pomme d’or, Geneva 2011.

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Gaston de Persigny

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10 May 2023