The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) sounded the alarm on Wednesday after locusts were spotted in the country’s north and northeast. FAO said that a “full outbreak” this year could destroy up to 1.2 million metric tonnes of wheat, or a quarter of the total annual harvest.

FAO Representative in Afghanistan Richard Trenchard said that together with partners, the agency was racing to help reduce the impact of the outbreak.

With pesticides in short supply, thousands of people in communities across the affected provinces were working “day and night” to eradicate the pests using “traditional mechanical control methods” before they become adults and begin to swarm, he said. 

Left untreated, the Moroccan Locust population could increase 100-fold in the next year, according to FAO.

Earlier this year, the UN World Food Programme warned that six million Afghans were one step away from famine.

‘Huge concern’

Sightings of locusts at different development stages have been made in Badakhshan, Badghis, Baghlan, Balkh, Kunduz, Samangan, Sar-e-Pul and Takhar, with fresh reports coming in from Heart and Ghor provinces.

“The reports of Moroccan Locust outbreak in Afghanistan’s wheat basket is a huge concern”, said Mr. Trenchard.

“The Moroccan locust eats more than 150 species of plants, including tree crops, pastures and 50 food crops, all of which grow in Afghanistan. It represents an enormous threat to farmers, communities and the entire country,” he added.

He noted that the last two big infestations which took place 20 and 40 years ago, cost the country an estimated 8 per cent, and 25 per cent of production.

“Harvest forecasts this year are the best we have seen for the last three years – but this outbreak threatens to destroy all these recent gains and dramatically worsen the food insecurity situation later this year and into next year,” the FAO Representative continued.

The Moroccan Locust is ranked among the most economically damaging plant pests anywhere in the world, and the value of the potential loss, adds up to between $280 million and a staggering $480 million, going by today’s prices, FAO warned.

The agency said that the year had seen “perfect” conditions for a locust outbreak so far, in the north and northeast, with over-grazing, drought and very limited control measures, creating an “ideal environment for locusts to hatch and swarm.”

Swinging into action

“The alarm bells rang late, but FAO, its incredible NGO partners, local communities and local authorities sprang into immediate action,” said Mr. Trenchard.

“Chemical supplies were low across the country so we were forced to focus on traditional ‘mechanical control’ methods to reduce the impact of the outbreak.”

He said that cash-for-work had been a way “to put money into the pockets of farmers most at risk while accelerating mechanical control in communities across the North and Northeast regions”, and there had been “a strong, rapid and encouraging response from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, although their capacity to respond is heavily constrained by a lack of resources”.

Ominous threat

Typically, after decimating pasture, large locust hopper bands and adult swarms move down to cropland areas and eat rain-fed and irrigated wheat and other crops.

FAO warned that there is not a single crop which is spared from Moroccan Locust damage.

If numbers do increase up to 100-fold, it would create even bigger problems for agriculture and food security in Afghanistan, and neighbouring countries.

If the Moroccan locust population is left untreated, it could increase its numbers by 100-fold in the next year, creating even bigger problems for agriculture and food security for Afghanistan and that of its neighbours.

“Chemical control methods are far more effective than mechanical control”, said Mr. Trenchard. 

“Afghanistan used to have a very strong locust control system in place.  But this has been heavily eroded in the last two years. At this point in time, all we can hope is that the mechanical control approaches will reduce the overall impact of the swarms.  But we must start now to prevent 2024 from seeing even bigger outbreaks”, he concluded.

In an alert on the situation, the World Food Programme (WFP) said that it expected between two and 2.5 million more people to face acute hunger in the coming months, because of conflict that erupted on 15 April between forces loyal to rival Generals Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

This development would take the already dire food insecurity in Sudan to a “record high”, WFP said, with two-fifths of the country’s population affected. 

According to the UN agency, the biggest spikes in food insecurity could occur in West Darfur, West Kordofan, Blue Nile, Red Sea and North Darfur states.

‘Huge’ needs, scarce resources

Meanwhile, the UH High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi shared on Twitter that more than 150,000 people have now fled Sudan – both Sudanese citizens and refugees hosted in the country.

“Needs are huge. Resources are scarce. Aid is required, urgently!” Mr. Grandi wrote. 

Soaring food prices

UN humanitarians expect the price of basic food items to increase by 25 per cent in the next three to six months.

If the situation in the country bars farmers from accessing their fields and planting key staples between May and July, food prices could rise even more, WFP said.

Lifesaving aid

The UN agency has resumed its operations in Sudan, after a temporary pause following the killing of three of its aid workers at the start of the conflict. Since last week, and despite a dire security situation, WFP has reached over 35,000 people with food assistance.

The aid is a lifeline for the most vulnerable, including families who have recently fled the conflict, refugees living in Sudan and internally displaced people and their host communities.

Overall, the agency aims to support 4.9 million vulnerable people in areas where the security situation allows, in addition to “preventing and treating moderate acute malnutrition” for 600,000 children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women. 

WFP also said that the UN Humanitarian Air Services (UNHAS), which it manages, is starting “regular” air connections between Port Sudan and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to enable the “safe transportation of frontline humanitarians and critical aid”.

Support for neighbouring countries

The UN agency is also providing emergency food assistance to thousands who have fled Sudan to neighbouring Chad, South Sudan, Egypt and the Central African Republic, amid dire funding shortages.

In South Sudan for instance, where more than 40,000 returnees have fled across the border, WFP says that it is “cash-strapped” and that any extra pressure on resources could force it to take food and funding from others to support new arrivals.

According to figures from the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR’s data portal, the largest outflows from Sudan have been to Egypt, which has seen the arrival of over 68,000 Sudanese refugees and close to 5,000 refugees of other nationalities fleeing the fighting.

Last week, the agency appealed for $445 million to support the displaced until October.