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Photographer: Lynsey Weatherspoon/Bloomberg
Photographer: Lynsey Weatherspoon/Bloomberg
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A new international day to celebrate clean air – and a sustainable recovery from COVID-19
The first ever International Day of Clean Air for blue skies on 7 September 2020 gives us an opportunity to celebrate the importance of clean air – something that is so fundamental to us all for our health and well-being. Air, both indoors and outdoors, can be contaminated by chemical, biological or physical agents that modify its natural characteristics. The global challenge of tackling air pollution is a two-fold problem.
Firstly, and most importantly, air pollution has a measurable health impact. Globally, air pollution is the second leading cause of death from noncommunicable diseases after tobacco smoking. Air pollutants of major public health concern include particulate matter (PM), tropospheric (ground-level) ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and sulphur dioxide (SO₂), which can affect many organs and systems. The evidence is strongest for cardiovascular and respiratory effects. Other possible health outcomes include metabolic effects, atherosclerosis, impaired neurological and lung development in children, and even an association with neurodegenerative diseases. It is also a problem of inequity, as air pollution particularly affects those already disadvantaged or vulnerable: people cannot choose the air they breathe.
Secondly, some air pollutants – particularly black carbon (a component of PM) and tropospheric O₃ – are also short-lived climate pollutants, which are linked with both health effects and near-term warming of the planet. They persist in the atmosphere for as little as a few days or up to a few decades, so their reduction has co-benefits not just for health but also for the climate.
Linkages between COVID-19 and air quality
Poor air quality is an important risk factor for both acute and chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. People who have these underlying medical conditions are thought to be at a greater risk of developing severe disease from COVID-19 infection; thus, air pollution is most likely a contributing factor to the health burden caused by COVID-19.
During this global COVID-19 pandemic, however, we have also seen an important, albeit short-term, reduction of air pollution across cities. This reduction is more prominent in the case of nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), a pollutant very much related to traffic, which is one of the activities most affected by the lockdown measures. European data for some cities has shown a reduction of around 50%, and in some cases up to 70%, in NO₂ levels compared to pre-lockdown values.
COVID-19 is an unfolding tragedy but, at the same time, it has given us an unprecedented opportunity to witness how policies related to transport, and the way people work, study and consume, could be capitalized upon as we collectively move forward towards a “new normal” that could deliver environmental and health benefits.
Building back better
“Air pollution is a leading cause of mortality. The International Day of Clean Air for blue skies is a pertinent reminder that we must work together to combat air pollution to protect the health and lives of current and future generations,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. “COVID-19 has had a devastating impact across the world. But the response measures have not only protected our health but also managed to achieve short-term improvements in air quality. With planned and sustainable action on air pollution, we have proof that we can tackle the long-term health burden and climate challenge, drastically improving quality of life.”
This ambition of longer-term environmental sustainability, is reflected in the recently published WHO “Manifesto for a healthy recovery from COVID-19”, which has a strong focus on reducing air pollution and recognizing the broad benefits of improved air quality. This follows a United Nations-wide call from Secretary-General António Guterres in May “to use the recovery to build back better”, to take advantage of the opportunity that COVID-19 has presented us. A responsible social and economic recovery can also address urgent environment and climate change concerns. In the European Union (EU) this resonates in the European Green Deal, launched at the end of last year as a push towards a just transition of the EU’s economy.
Improving air quality can enhance climate change mitigation, and climate change mitigation efforts can in turn improve air quality. By promoting environmental sustainability hand-in-hand with economic recovery, we can make large steps towards mitigating climate change and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Over the long run, this will also protect our health and the resilience of our health systems, leaving no one behind.
Build a better future with blue skies for all, UN urges
Build a better future with blue skies for all, UN urges, marking first International Day of Clean Air
In a message, UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted the dangers posed by air pollution and urged greater efforts to address it.
“Air pollution contributes to heart disease, strokes, lung cancer and other respiratory diseases; [it] also threatens the economy, food security and the environment,” he said.
We need dramatic and systemic change. Reinforced environmental standards, policies and laws that prevent emissions of air pollutants are needed more than ever – UN Secretary-General
“As we recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the world needs to pay far greater attention to air pollution, which also increases the risks associated with COVID-19,” he added.
Globally, nine out of every ten people breathe unclean air, and air pollution causes an estimated seven million premature deaths every year, predominantly in low- and middle-income countries.
This year, while the lockdowns associated with the global pandemic led to dramatic falls in emissions – providing a glimpse of cleaner air in many cities – emissions are already rising again, in some places surpassing pre-COVID levels.
“We need dramatic and systemic change. Reinforced environmental standards, policies and laws that prevent emissions of air pollutants are needed more than ever,” stressed Mr. Guterres.
Climate action and clean air
Addressing climate change can also cut back air pollution.
“Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees will help reduce air pollution, death and disease,” said the Secretary-General, calling on countries to end subsidies for fossil fuels as well as to use post-COVID recovery packages to support the transition to healthy and sustainable jobs.
“I call on governments still providing finance for fossil fuel-related projects in developing countries to shift that support towards clean energy and sustainable transport.”
“At the international level,” he added, “countries need to cooperate to help each other transition to clean technologies.”
WHO video | Air pollution and health: How will our children continue to breathe?
The International Day
The International Day of Clean Air for blue skies, to be commemorated on 7 September annually, was established in 2019 by the UN General Assembly, which recognized the importance of clean air and the impact of air pollution on human health and ecosystems, in particular its disproportionate affect on women, children and older persons.
The resolution emphasized “the need to strengthen international cooperation at the global, regional and subregional levels in various areas related to improving air quality, including the collection and utilization of data, joint research and development, and the sharing of best practices.”
The International Day aims to raise awareness clean air is important for health, productivity, the economy and the environment; demonstrate the close link of air quality to other environmental and developmental challenges such as climate change; promote solutions that improve air quality by sharing actionable knowledge best practices, innovations, and success stories; and bring together diverse actors for concerted national, regional and international approaches for effective air quality management.
Commemorations
Around the world, UN agencies, governments, civil society organizations and NGOs organized several events – many virtual due to the coronavirus pandemic – to commemorate the International Day and spur action. These include discussions and webinars, musical performances, documentary screenings, exhibitions, and donating plants and trees.
Individuals too can play a part: by cycling to work, not burning trash (it causes air pollution), and pressuring local authorities to improve green spaces in cities, everyone can contribute to making the air cleaner and skies bluer.
A ‘solidarity clause’ in the EU climate law
The European Union should include a “solidarity clause” in its climate law to ensure that member states most burdened by the EU’s new carbon reduction targets are compensated for the additional costs of purchasing allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System, writes MEP Anna Zalewska.
Anna Zalewska is a polish Member of the European Parliament for the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group. She is shadow rapporteur on the proposed Climate Law on behalf of ECR.
The European Climate Law aims to set a legally binding target for climate neutrality by 2050, and consequently, to increase the level of reduction ambitions for as early as 2030. With this, the European Climate Law should include a solidarity clause that guarantees a proportional increase in the compensation provided for in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) Directive for Member States most burdened when implementing these specific EU goals.
In addition, before proposing climate neutrality as a legally binding objective, the European Commission ought to carry out its ongoing impact assessment of the investment and operational costs that the new EU objectives will require and publish its results for individual Member States, not just aggregates for the entirety of the EU across sectors.
Considering the differing levels of wealth and energy sector structure mix across EU Member States, country-specific results would make clear which countries would be encumbered with the highest cost resulting from the new EU commitments per capita. In such a scenario, it would seem fair that these baskets be distributed according to the level of society’s wealth.
Due to the considerable water sources in Sweden, about 40% of electricity is generated from hydropower, and about 39% from nuclear energy, i.e. zero emission energy sources. Denmark, in turn, began construction of its first wind farms in the 1970s, enabling its energy sector composition to have reached about 50% of wind energy from its total consumption. In turn, the Polish communist authorities, based on available raw materials, decided to develop coal-based electricity, which has its consequences to this day.
Poland does intend to modernise its energy mix accordingly with international commitments at the UNFCCC forum and climate objectives adopted unanimously at the European Council summit. However, if one considers increasing ambition for 2030, which had already been agreed on at the EU summit in 2014, we, as Poland and other EU Member States in similar positions, would therefore also have the right to expect solidarity from our European partners. It is not a farfetched argument to suggest sharing both profits and burdens resulting from new EU challenges evenly. This should not be a zero-sum situation, where the profit of some comes at the expense of others, namely resulting from different starting points and the pressured transfer of technology from Western to Eastern Europe. It is a matter of European justice to ensure this is formulated properly.
At present, Poland continues to be burdened with a disproportionally heavy net loss from its participation in the EU ETS. Companies which are subject to bear carbon cost in Poland must spend much more money compared to revenues from the national budget through the auctioning of allowances. In other words, those companies are obliged to buy CO2 allowances also from the national pool of other Member States, resulting in cash outflows of potential investment funds from Poland. Furthermore, with the CO2 prices which can be anticipated to be even steeper in the near future, this deficit will only widen. Its value may reach tens of billions of Euros if the European Commission takes on a new climate goal which is presently being considered.
The current proposal from the European Commission of the European Climate Law would oversee further tightening of the CO2 reduction target by 2030 from the current 40% to at least 50-55% by 2030, with growing investment expenditure related to the change in the energy mix and the development of low-carbon installations. In the ambitious reduction target scenario (55% by 2030), CO2 prices may exceed the ceiling of €75 per tonne and the total cost of purchasing allowances for Poland’s energy sector by 2030 is estimated in this scenario at approximately €68.5 billion.
This means that, compared to the baseline scenario (current 40% emission reduction target by 2030), the purchase of emission allowances alone will cause approximately €30 billion of additional operating costs for Poland’s energy sector. In this way, instead of spending funds to build new low-carbon assets, energy companies will have to allocate their resources to settle their emissions allowances and maintain the operation of generating units, which due to Poland’s energy structure cannot be changed, let alone shut down, overnight.
Only in taking into account the aforementioned estimates can one more realistically assess the real value of the currently proposed compensation mechanisms for energy companies under the EU ETS such as the Modernisation Fund. In this scenario of higher CO2 prices, Poland’s envelope of the Modernisation Fund will amount to about €6.7 billion, which means that in order to obtain full compensation only for the additional operational costs of an ambitious climate policy, it would need to be increased about five times over.
In this regard, the European Climate Law should explicitly declare an increase in resources for transforming the energy mix, in proportion to the additional costs, to be allocated to the poorer Member States and to the EU Member States undergoing the most drastic changes as a result.
Notwithstanding, revenues from the sale of emission allowances at the national level – last year it was €2.5 billion – ought to be transferred to the low-emission transformation of the largest payers of the ETS system. Otherwise, decarbonisation of the energy mix will unfortunately lead to a loss of domestic generation potential and sustainable import of electricity.
As part of the work on European Climate Law and in the subsequent work on the EU ETS Directive, for the above-mentioned reasons I aim to propose that the additional costs of purchasing allowances be fairly divided between individual EU Member States. This would constitute one of the key ways to ensure that Europeans are not divided into winners and losers of the energy transformation.
The European Commission says that it understands these dilemmas, but the mechanisms it proposes to overcome these unevenly distributed costs of transformation between EU Member States are unfortunately insufficient to a too large extent to ignore. For instance, according to the European Commission, Poland may receive about €2 billion for investment and retraining of employees from the Just Transformation Fund, if it is created for 2021-2027. However, to our understanding, these measures represent only about 1% of the investment costs the electricity sector would need to achieve climate neutrality in 2050, creating a clear mismatch.
If the EU takes the idea of solidarity seriously, most of the profits from the EU ETS auction should go to the EU Member States most in need so as to facilitate their transformation and economic development, especially in times of crisis. Then it would be possible to establish a better understanding between Eastern and Western Europe, around what we can call a just energy transformation that leaves not even one participant in this transformation process behind.
UK overriding Brexit divorce deal would be “self-defeating” – EU diplomats
BRUSSELS, Sept 7 (Reuters) – Britain’s reported plans to override parts of its Brexit divorce agreement with the EU would amount to “a desperate and ultimately self-defeating strategy”, a diplomat with the bloc said on Monday.
Talks on a new relationship from 2021 between the estranged allies plunged into a fresh crisis on Monday after Britain warned the European Union that it could effectively override the divorce deal it signed earlier unless the bloc agrees to a free trade deal by Oct. 15.
“‘Pacta sunt servanda’ meaning ‘agreements must be kept’ is a fundamental principle in international law. If the UK chose not to respect its international obligations, it would undermine its international standing,” said an EU diplomat.
“Who would want to agree trade deals with a country that doesn’t implement international treaties? It would be a desperate and ultimately self-defeating strategy.”
Another EU diplomat, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, echoed that in referring to Britain’s divorce deal with the bloc last year:
“Without correct implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement, I cannot imagine the EU would conclude a treaty with a country that does not abide by its treaty commitments.” (Reporting by Gabriela Baczynska, John Chalmers; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Boris Johnson warns EU not to expect compromise
The UK is stepping up preparations for Brexit trade talks to fail, as time runs out for reaching a deal.
Boris Johnson will tell the European Union on Monday he’s willing to walk away rather than compromise on what he sees as the core principles of Brexit, setting an October 15 deadline for a deal even as UK officials draft a law that risks undermining the already fragile negotiations. The pound edged lower against the euro.
His government is preparing to publish new legislation designed to dilute the legal force of the divorce deal he signed with the EU this year if outstanding issues can’t be resolved on the thorny question of Northern Ireland. The plan was first reported by the Financial Times.
The Internal Market Bill, expected to be published on Wednesday, is designed to lessen the power of the Brexit withdrawal agreement on issues including state aid and customs in Northern Ireland, a person familiar with the British plan said. The aim of the bill is to ensure smooth trade between the UK’s four nations, avoiding tariffs between Northern Ireland and the mainland after Brexit, for example.
But any move to unravel the Brexit divorce deal is a gamble. While UK officials say the draft law is only intended as a fall-back option in case talks fail, there’s a risk it will further poison the negotiations with the EU on a future trade deal, said the person, speaking on condition of anonymity. The trade talks are stuck and Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney tweeted his disapproval of Johnson’s latest maneuver.
An EU diplomat said the UK’s planned move would be a desperate and ultimately self-defeating strategy. If the UK doesn’t respect its obligations, this will undermine its international standing and its ability to strike trade deals, the diplomat added, asking not to be identified by name, in line with policy.
On Monday, Environment Secretary George Eustice said the UK government is working in “good faith” in line with the agreements already reached with the EU.
“We are still working through the detail with the joint committee on making the Northern Ireland protocol work: we’re absolutely committed to it as part of the Withdrawal Agreement,” Eustice told Sky News. “But where there are legal ambiguities at the end of that, things like exit declarations and things like that, we may need to provide businesses with the certainty that they need.”
The developments came as both sides prepared for a crucial round of talks in London this week that seem unlikely to deliver a breakthrough. The UK is due to leave the EU single market and customs union when the Brexit transition agreement expires at the end of December. If a new deal isn’t struck, UK-EU trade is likely to be hit by chaotic scenes of long queues at the border and costly new tariffs on goods.
Yet for Johnson, who led the pro-Brexit campaign in 2016, a bad deal would be worse than no deal. On Monday, he’ll say the UK is prepared to leave the transition period without an agreement — a scenario he’ll describe as a “good outcome,” his office said in an emailed statement.
Realists versus ideologues
“There is still an agreement to be had,” Johnson will say, pledging that his government will work hard through September and urging the bloc to “rethink” its positions. “But we cannot and will not compromise on the fundamentals of what it means to be an independent country to get it.”
A European diplomat, who asked not to be named, said informal consultations ahead of this week’s talks yielded no shift in positions. A second diplomat said the view in Brussels is that there’s a fight between Brexit realists and Brexit ideologues in the British government, and it’s uncertain which side will prevail.
The UK will revert to trading with its biggest market on terms set by the World Trade Organisation if there’s no agreement in place by December 31. That means the return of certain tariffs and quotas, as well as extra paperwork for businesses. Though the British government describes that as an “Australia-style” agreement, it’s an outcome feared by British businesses who warn of severe disruptions to vital just-in-time supply chains.
Johnson will say that in the absence of a deal, the UK will be “ready to find sensible accommodations on practical issues,” including aviation, haulage, and scientific cooperation, according to his office.
The two sides have been at an impasse for months over state aid and fisheries. The EU is seeking to keep the access its fisherman currently have to UK waters to protect jobs and coastal communities, while Britain wants reduced access for EU boats and to make it conditional on regular negotiations.
On state aid, or so-called level playing field regulations, Johnson’s government wants the freedom to chart its own course, while the EU is demanding to know what the British government plans to ensure fair competition.
Negotiators have scheduled eight hours of talks on both issues this week, according to an agenda published on Friday.
On Sunday, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab accused the bloc of trying to undermine the UK’s Brexit decision by keeping it bound to the rules of the EU’s single market.
‘Point of principle’
“This week is an important moment for the EU to really effectively recognise that those two points of principles are not something we can just haggle away — they are the very reasons we are leaving the EU,” Raab told Sky News. He said the issue of state aid is a “point of principle” for the UK rather than an indication the government is preparing major interventions.
“I don’t think the EU should be worried about that,” he said.
There’s pessimism in Brussels about the prospects of a breakthrough, and for now, Brexit isn’t on the agenda of the September 24 EU summit.
Michel Barnier, the bloc’s top negotiator, said last week he was “worried” and “disappointed” by the current state of the talks, saying Britain would need to shift its position to reach an agreement.
The EU also hit back at reports in the British media that Barnier is being sidelined in an attempt to push forward a trade agreement, calling them “unfounded rumors.”
“Whoever wants to engage with the EU on Brexit needs to engage with Michel Barnier,” Sebastian Fischer, a Brussels-based spokesman for the German government, whose country holds the EU presidency, said in a tweet over the weekend.
The two sides are even at loggerheads on how to negotiate, with the EU demanding progress on all issues and the UK seeking initial agreements on less contentious points to build momentum toward a final deal.
Serious
Ahead of the meetings, the UK’s chief negotiator, David Frost, warned that his side would “not blink,” and contrasted Johnson’s steadfast approach with that of his predecessor, Theresa May. British officials have also repeatedly complained about the EU’s position.
“A lot of what we are trying to do this year is to get them to realise that we mean what we say and they should take our position seriously,” Frost said in an interview with the Mail on Sunday.
The standoff comes amid warnings from British businesses, particularly the haulage industry, about the UK’s ability to mitigate disruption at ports.
Raab told the BBC on Sunday that earlier planning for a no-deal Brexit and the measures put in place during the coronavirus pandemic have put the UK “in a much stronger place” to handle the risks. “But we’d much rather have a deal with the EU.”
© 2020 Bloomberg
UK ups the ante on EU ahead of crunch Brexit trade talks
David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator on a post-Brexit trade deal on Sunday (6 September) upped the ante ahead of a crunch week of negotiations, warning that Boris Johnson’s government was not “scared” of walking away from talks without a deal to govern trade from 2021.
Frost will host EU counterpart Michel Barnier for the eighth round of talks in London, starting on Tuesday, with both sides under pressure to break a lengthy log-jam on regulatory alignment and fisheries.
In an interview with the Mail on Sunday, Frost also pinned the blame for the impasse on the team of Boris Johnson’s predecessor as Prime Minister, Theresa May, who he said had “blinked and had its bluff called at critical moments” during negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement that took the UK out of the EU this January.
As a consequence, Frost said that the EU had “learned not to take our word seriously”.
That prompted an angry reaction from Gavin Barwell, chief of staff for May, who accused Frost of “brass neck”, pointing out that 95% of the Withdrawal Agreement signed off by Johnson was negotiated by May.
“The 5% that was new involved giving in to the EU’s key demand,” said Barwell, a reference to Johnson agreeing to the EU’s ‘backstop’ proposal to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Although the post-Brexit transition period ends on 31 December, the window for agreeing a new trade pact with sufficient time for it to be ratified by national parliaments and the European Parliament is steadily closing.
In a BBC interview on Sunday, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab also sought to put the pressure on Barnier, warning that this week’s round would be “a wake-up call for the EU” and repeated that a deal was “there for the taking” if the two sides could broker a compromise on state aid and fisheries.
Fisheries appears to be tougher to resolve. The EU has demanded fishing arrangements that gives EU trawlers access to UK waters comparable to that offered by the Common Fisheries Policy, while the UK wants the EU’s 40 year old fisheries agreement with Norway to be the model for its own settlement.
Boris Johnson’s government is expected to outline its plans for the UK’s future state aid regime later this month, a move which officials hope could pave the way to a compromise. Barnier has stated that the EU cannot agree to a trade deal without knowing what the UK’s subsidy regime will look like, though Barnier’s team have indicated that this does not mean that the UK must necessarily mirror EU state aid rules.
“I think this week is an important moment for the EU to really effectively recognise that those two points of principle are not something we can just haggle away,” said Raab.
The two sides’ positions have hardened in recent weeks. Last week, Barnier said that he was ‘worried and disappointed’ by the UK’s refusal to offer compromises, while French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian blamed the lack of progress on “the UK’s uncompromising and, to be frank, unrealistic attitude”.
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Researchers Find Christians in Iran Approaching 1 Million
Missiologists have long spoken of the explosive growth of the church in Iran.
Now they have data to back up their claims—from secular research.
According to a new survey of 50,000 Iranians—90 percent residing in Iran—by GAMAAN, a Netherlands-based research group, 1.5 percent identified as Christian.
Extrapolating over Iran’s population of approximately 50 million literate adults (the sample surveyed) yields at least 750,000 believers. According to GAMAAN, the number of Christians in Iran is “without doubt in the order of magnitude of several hundreds of thousands and growing beyond a million.”
The traditional Armenian and Assyrian Christians in Iran number 117,700, according to the latest government statistics.
Christian experts surveyed by CT expressed little surprise. But it may make a significant difference for the Iranian church.
“With the lack of proper data, most international advocacy groups expressed a degree of doubt on how widespread the conversion phenomenon is in Iran,” said Mansour Borji, research and advocacy director for Article 18, a UK-based organization dedicated to the protection and promotion of religious freedom in Iran.
“It is pleasing to see—for the first time—a secular organization adding its weight to these claims.”
The research, which asked 23 questions about an individuals’ “attitude toward religion” and demographics, was run by professors associated with the respected Dutch universities of Tilburg and Utrecht.
The general presumption of doubt risked influencing asylum applications by Iranians seeking resettlement in Europe or elsewhere.
“We do not regard it as remotely plausible that there are as many as 1 million people secretly practicing Christianity in Iran today,” wrote a UK judge in a March ruling establishing best practice guidelines, following a case that ultimately denied asylum to an Iranian convert.
“The huge numbers of converts claimed by various evangelical missions must be viewed in light of the fact that … the more converts they can claim, the greater the incentive for co-religionists to donate.”
Yet despite the widespread skepticism, research conducted by Christian advocacy organizations has begun to produce results.
In 2005, the United Nations created the Geneva-based Universal Periodic Review to evaluate the human rights status of every nation every 4.5 years. During its review session in February, for the first time recommendations for Iran included its treatment of “Christian converts,” issued by Norway and the Netherlands.
“We try to build relations with diplomats as much as they allow,” said Wissam al-Saliby, advocacy director for the World Evangelical Alliance.
“Without such reporting, news of Christian persecution will not filter into Geneva circles, and nations will not feel any pressure.
“It is important for Iran to hear the distinction between its traditional Christian communities, and its converts to the Christian faith.”
But according to the GAMAAN survey, there is another distinction Iran must make.
“The real news is not the number of Christians,” said Johannes de Jong, director of the Sallux (“Salt-Light” in Latin) think tank, affiliated with the European Christian Political Movement.
“It is the massive secularization of Iranian society as a whole.”
Only 32 percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Shiite Muslim. Officially, Iran puts their number at 95 percent.
“The Islam in Iran is a political system, not a faith embraced by any majority,” said de Jong, who has worked with Iranian asylum seekers and opposition politicians over the last 20 years.
“A free Iran would see an implosion of Islam, and a very significant rise of Christianity, Zoroastrism, and atheism.”
The survey already bears this out.
Atheists poll at 9 percent of the population (and nones, or no religious affiliation, overall at 22%); Zoroastrians at 7 percent. The 2011 census numbered Zoroastrians at only 25,000. Extrapolating the percentage from this survey, which GAMAAN stated is 95 percent accurate, that would now be 5.6 million. (Sources said this may indicate a non-Islamic Persian nationalism rather than a true system of belief.)
Nearly half (47%) said they used to be religious but are no longer.
Only 6 in 10 Iranians surveyed said they were born into a religious family. But 6 in 10 also do not say their daily prayers. And 7 in 10 do not want legislation based on religion (68%); state-funded religious institutions (71%); or mandatory head covering (73%). A majority (58%) do not believe in wearing the hijab at all.
And according to a 2019 survey by GAMAAN, 79 percent of the population would vote against an Islamic republic.
While this might seem a fertile field for Christian witness, David Yeghnazar of Elam Ministries warns against the “clay feet” of secularism. For example, almost 4 in 10 Iranians (37%) drink alcohol—which is forbidden in Islam.
“Iranians are attracted to Christianity because they think it is part and parcel of the free, secular, and democratic West,” he said. “It is important for Christian agencies to pry Christianity away from that mould.”
He was also cautious about endorsing the survey statistics as a true estimate of the body of Christ. In a secular survey, “Christian” can imply anything from a “vague attraction” to a “genuine love of Christ and a growing knowledge of the Scriptures.”
Yeghnazar believes the house churches’ lack of governing structure will harm the growing movement. False teaching, financial irregularity, and pastoral dictatorship may begin to plague them.
Borji agrees.
“There is a very real risk that church growth is outpacing discipleship,” he said. “But the problem is exasperated by the fact that many leaders are now in prison, or have been forced out of the country.”
The impact, said Mike Ansari, president of Heart4Iran, is that the church is “highly marginalized, scattered, and segmented.”
Ansari believes personal evangelism is the most effective method for spreading the gospel and the reason behind much of Christianity’s growth in Iran. But given that it is “extremely risky,” satellite television has become the leading factor.
Ansari’s Mohabat TV noticed a surge in conversions during COVID-19. Whereas the channel was informed of 324 conversions through its ministry in March 2019, there was a tenfold increase one year later, with 3,088 new believers.
And if the exponential growth of house churches fails to keep up with conversions, satellite TV must fill in the gap.
Mohabat TV does its best. Elam Ministries’ Safar [Farsi for “journey”] program also helps.
Is it enough?
“Without meaningful face-to-face fellowship and discipleship, the future of the Iranian Church remains uncertain,” Ansari said.
“Isolation is the biggest enemy of church growth.”
It may prove a more effective foe than the Iranian government.
Wybo Nicolai of Open Doors International, based in Holland, noted that rapid church growth began in 2004, when the state put pressure on officially registered churches ministering through the Farsi language. (Iran’s traditional Christian communities use the Armenian and Assyrian languages of their ethnic communities.)
Consequently, ministry was forced underground where it “spread like wildfire” through cell groups and house churches.
“The Iranian authorities lost oversight of it,” said Nicolai. “There was nothing they could do to stop the spread of the gospel.”
They tried, and are trying still. Contrary to official accusations of Christians being Zionist agents and a threat to national security, an Iranian official recently told clerics in the holy city of Qom that “these converts are ordinary people, whose jobs are selling sandwiches or similar things.”
He complained that conversion is “happening right before our eyes.”
But the evidence of Iran’s failure as a theocracy to protect Islam is seen far beyond the Christian tally in the GAMAAN survey. If its overall statistics are valid, only 1 in 3 Iranians claim their national religion. And 4 in 10 believe every religion should be free to propagate its beliefs.
“The hearts and minds of the Iranian people have been plowed and made ready by Iranian government behavior over the last 40 years,” said Borji.
“The people’s resistance to the gospel has been neutralized.”
Mozambique conflict has raged for decades, but the churches are always there
Conflict has ingrained itself in the people of Mozambique for many decades from the days of Portuguese colonial rule, to the ensuing civil war which only ended this century, and now Daesh along with the unseen enemy of COVID-19.
So, the churches have their hands full as peacemakers.
“Before and after Mozambique’s independence in 1975, the Christian Council of Mozambique contributed to national pacification in many unrecognized ways.
“This was possible because the ‘problem’ was known, therefore possible to deal with,” says Rev. Felicidade Naume Chirinda.
She is a Presbyterian minister and chair of the board of the CCM.
“These days, Mozambique is afflicted by three wars, namely the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado that started in 2017, the armed conflict in the central provinces of Manica and Sofala that started in 2019, and the coronavirus that is affecting the entire world,” she said.
ARMED CONFLICTS, NATURAL DISASTERS
Chirinda said that present armed conflicts have different motivations while he also noted that parts of Mozambique have also faced recent natural disasters.
She quoted the letter of the Apostle Paul to the Ephesians 6:12-15. “For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of the age, against spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places”
“Therefore, take up the whole armor of God, that you may be able to withstand in the evil day….and having shod your feet with the preparation of the Gospel of peace.”
The minister said the actions of the churches these days fit into Paul’s verses that call for a deep understanding of the scriptures, courage and commitment.
“It took time for us as a church to understand this condition,” said Chirinda.
She issued his observation as the International Committee of the Red Cross on Sept. 2, said that attacks on towns and villages in Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado have intensified.
The attacks had forced thousands of people to flee by foot, boat or road to the provincial capital, a COVID-19 hotspot where the Red Cross helped build the country’s largest treatment center.
“It is a sobering thought for Mozambique and Southern Africa as a whole that, at the time of writing, a growing insurgent army with links to Islamic State remains in control of Mocimboa da Praia in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province,” South Africa’s Daily Maverick newspaper wrote on Aug. 30.
The Mozambican National Resistance, also known as Renamo, the main opposition party in the country accused armed forces of the state of killing civilians in Cabo Delgado, so the conflict is becoming more complex, according to Deutsche Welle.
Formed in 1976, the Mozambican National Resistance was once backed by apartheid South Africa against the ruling Frelimo movement which it saw as Marxist. In recent years it has been the main opposition political party.
PEACE GROUPS
When the first attacks happened in 2017, the churches created peace groups composed by people of all faiths to prevent, help and create spaces of mutual support and contact with local leaders.
“These groups were recognized by the government and were able to prevent some attacks until December last year.
“This interaction with peace groups allowed the CCM and its partners to support those affected by the Cyclone Kenneth,” the strongest such storm known to have landed in the southern African nation, in April 2019.
“Our understanding of the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado changed this year due to the way attacks are organized, to the discourses and articles written by Mozambicans and foreigners, to mention just a few,” said Chirinda.
“As a church, we now understand that the conflict in Cabo Delgado is not only internal. Therefore, it is calling us to understand the Scriptures and to find support in God.”
Since the attacks became more frequent with “God’s people being killed, their homes and belongings destroyed and burned,” Chirinda said churches and civil society are collaborating.
She called for dialogue, distributing goods and providing comfort through the “Word of God.”
Rev. Dinis Matsolo, bishop of the Methodist Church of Southern Africa, Mozambique Synod said, “The big question is who are these people who create terror and havoc in Cabo Delgado—and what do they want?
“To date, the attacks of the so-called ‘insurgents without a face’ have claimed at least 1,059 lives since October 2017, destroyed a lot of infrastructure including many houses, and uprooted over 250,000 people.
The situation has worsened since then, affecting about 9 of the 17 districts of that province and it is now affecting neighboring provinces, especially Nampula that has become a refugee camp.”
In resource-starved Mozambique that neighbors Malawi, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia Eswatini and Tanzania, about 50 percent of the 30 million people are believed to be Christians while about 19 percent, mainly in the north, are Muslims.
Catholics are the biggest group of Christians.
“This war is above our earthly capacities, it calls for strong faith, order and prayers with hope but, above all, for God’s intervention,” said Matsolo.
The Mozambican Church has always been involved in peace processes in the country, having made a massive contribution to the process that led to the signing of the Mozambican 1992 Peace Accord held in Rome.
‘CREATING DIALOGUE SPACE’
“In Cabo Delgado, we have been working on creating ‘dialogue spaces’ by establishing inter-religious peace groups in affected districts.”
“And for the central region, we are working on approaching the leadership of the military junta to seek ways of taking part in constructive dialogue. So, the church is indeed playing its role, being part of the solution.”
Matsolo said he will soon visit both Cabo Delgado as well as the camps in Nampula for insight into recent developments and will report back to the churches.
He said the church encourages President Filipe Nyusi to continue the efforts at dialogue to put an end to the suffering of the people.
“We salute in particular his understanding that the solution to the crises is more than military when he declared that ‘the solution to the problem of Cabo Delgado is not just military. We recognize the need to boost socio-economic development and promote greater social harmony.
“This pronouncement opens wider the doors for our involvement in peacebuilding efforts and support to the uprooted families.
“We will certainly need a lot of prayers and support from the wider ecumenical movement,” said Matsolo.
