“El Niño will further elevate global temperatures,” stated WMO scientist Alvaro Silva. “Historically, global temperatures tend to hit record highs during El Niño years.”
Key points include:
– El Niño is emerging in the tropical Pacific.
– Rapid development is anticipated from July through September.
– The phenomenon typically reaches its peak between November and February.
– Countries are urged to heed WMO warnings to protect lives and livelihoods.
The WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that robust El Niño conditions are likely to develop quickly from July to September, with “high confidence” in this forecast. This projection is based on multi-model forecasts from WMO collaborators, which suggest a “consistent and significant increase in ocean temperatures” across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomalies in monitored areas are expected to surpass 2°C.
Regional variations also pose concerns. On land, the situation is alarming. “As we enter the first week of July, we are beginning what is typically the hottest month of the year,” WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis informed reporters in Geneva. “However, we have already witnessed record temperatures in various parts of Europe in June; for instance, Germany set a new national record of 41.7°C last weekend.”
The WMO update draws attention to a “prolonged and hazardous heatwave” affecting the central and eastern United States, which is expected to last until the end of this week and extend into the Independence Day weekend, as noted by the US National Weather Service.
Furthermore, below-average conditions are likely in Central America and the Caribbean, as well as across North and South America. Parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia are also predicted to experience drier weather during the monsoon season; however, wetter conditions are anticipated in East Africa during the rainy season from September to December. The Indian Ocean Dipole, another significant climate factor, may contribute to above-normal rainfall and potential flooding in East Africa.
The El Niño alert has led to an “unprecedented mobilization” by the WMO, its global members, and regional climate center partners to assist governments with timely forecasts aimed at saving lives and safeguarding livelihoods, according to the agency.
“We have a limited window for preparedness and early action, and this window is closing in some areas,” emphasized WMO’s Mr. Silva. For regions facing drought, priorities should include ensuring sufficient water supplies for agriculture, energy production, and other essential activities.
El Niño and La Niña represent opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is one of the most significant climate influencers. This naturally occurring phenomenon is marked by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Niño events typically transpire every two to seven years and usually last from nine to twelve months. They typically begin to develop between March and June, reach their maximum intensity between November and February, and have their most significant impact on global temperatures in the year following their inception.
The consequences of El Niño can vary based on its intensity, duration, timing, and its interactions with other climate variability factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Not all regions are impacted uniformly, and even within the same area, effects can differ. “Extreme weather can still occur even when ENSO is neutral,” the WMO explains.
The agency categorizes El Niño and La Niña events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. “The intensity of El Niño is crucial because it heightens the probability of extreme weather and climate events across different regions of the world, compounded by long-term climate change caused by human actions,” WMO’s Mr. Silva underscored.
