Sudan’s territory has been used by terrorist groups as a safe haven since the 1990s when the country was host to Al-Qaeda—and to Osama bin Laden himself for five years before he returned Afghanistan—and the organisation remains a material and ideological risk to Sudan to this day.
There is renewed international anxiety that the country may once again be used as a launchpad for a new wave of terrorist activity. The risk of Al Qaeda re-establishing a presence in Sudan, especially through links to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), is considered real and endangers not only the country but also regional and even global security.
In early 1991 Osama Bin Laden relocated from Afghanistan to Sudan, staying for five years and establishing Wadi al-Aqiq, a business that reportedly provided financial support to Al-Qaeda. Bin Laden’s operations in Sudan were intertwined with the local government, which allowed him to set up training camps and grow crops used to fund militant activities. Terrorism analyst Maria Zupello explains that despite being expelled from Sudan, bin Laden continued to prioritise the country as a key operational base for global jihad, referring to it in 2006 as a pivotal operational base. Indeed, Al Qaeda had various cells in the country throughout the years, including in Salamah, a suburb of Khartoum, in 2007; a cell in the Dinder National Park in 2012; and two organizations, Ansar al Tawhid and Al-Qaeda in the Land of Two Niles, in the late 2000s to early 2010s.
According to Hafed al-Ghwell, a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins Schools of Advanced International Studies, Sudan’s mix of insecurity, economic distress, social unrest and unstable neighbours is a recipe for the rise of extremists in the country.
“Sharing a border with Libya, Chad and Somalia, where violent extremist groups continue to operate, the porous borders and weak security infrastructure in the region create perfect conditions for terrorists to relocate and move weapons, contraband and other illicit supplies,” al-Ghwell said.
In October 2022, Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani, a senior Al-Qaeda leader with historic ties to both Sudan and Bin Laden, published a manifesto calling for jihad in Sudan. Aiming to reinstate al-Qaeda’s operational base across the country, especially in flashpoint areas such as Khartoum and Darfur, he outlined strategies for targeted strikes and guerrilla warfare. Al-Sudani’s vision for al-Qaeda in Sudan calls for a Khartoum command centre that would oversee military attacks from Dongola in the north to Darfur in the south.
Islamists are already fighting alongside the SAF, particularly the Al Baraa bin Malik Battalion, and other groups within the broader “Popular Resistance” umbrella. Jihadists and other Islamists have also been freed in prison breaks since the civil war started. The SAF and its military intelligence were widely thought to be behind the escape from Kober Prison of the former officials, including Ahmed Harun, together with a number of other Islamist hardliners, including Ali Osman Taha, Awad El Jaz, and Nafi Ali Nafi, who were close to Omar Al Bashir during his 30-year dictatorship. According to Caleb Weiss at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, there are fears that elements or individuals previously linked to Al-Qaeda are already active alongside SAF.
As Sara Harmouch of the American University points out, Sudan’s strategic location bridging North and sub-Saharan Africa, and its resources, make it an attractive base for Al-Qaeda, aiming to expand its influence. Al-Qaeda’s renewed focus on Sudan underscores the region’s potential as a launchpad for orchestrating attacks on the U.S. and its allies. Harmouch emphasises that the group’s presence in conflict zones like Niger and Libya further demonstrates its ambition to target U.S. interests worldwide. In her view, if Al-Qaeda establishes a stronghold in Sudan, it could leverage the country’s rich resources, including oil and gold, to enhance its capabilities, exacerbating regional conflicts, threatening crucial trade routes, and leading to broader geopolitical unrest.
Analyst Maria Zupello fears a Sudanese stronghold could empower Al-Qaeda affiliates across Yemen, Somalia, and the Sahel region, exacerbating regional conflicts and threatening Red Sea trade routes. A United Nations report referenced by Zupello revealed that Al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch has been enhancing its maritime capabilities. Zupello warns that the resurgence of Al-Qaeda capabilities could lead to increased piracy, militarized blockades, and unregulated arms flow, escalating regional tensions and causing broader geopolitical unrest.
In Washington, D.C., recently, peace talks stopped before they even started. If the unparalleled suffering in Sudan is not enough to propel interested parties into action for peace, perhaps the threat of a renewed Al-Qaeda threat from a prime Red Sea location will help to focus minds.
Willy Fautré is the director of Human Rights Without Frontiers, an NGO based in Brussels that he founded in 2001. He is a former chargé de mission at the Cabinet of the Belgian Ministry of Education and at the Belgian Parliament. He is a co-founder of the Raoul Wallenberg Committee, Belgium.
