Europe’s forests and land are absorbing less carbon than expected, putting the 2030 target for the sector at risk. But with the right policies and measures, the land use and forestry sector could still play a crucial role in climate mitigation, with significant co-benefits for people and nature, according to a new European Environment Agency (EEA) report published today.
The land use, land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) currently acts as a net carbon sink of 198 MtCO2e, offsetting around 6% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions (2023). The new EEA report ‘Enhancing Europe’s land carbon sink: status and prospects’ shows that this capacity has weakened, putting future climate goals at risk.
Achieving the EU’s climate neutrality goal by 2050 will require not only a rapid and substantial cut of emissions but also removing carbon from the atmosphere. In the near term, the land sectors are expected to deliver the largest share of these removals, and in 2023, the EU adopted its first-ever LULUCF removals target.
Despite optimistic projections by the climate modelling community, the LULUCF sector’s role in delivering greenhouse gas removals has diminished. Between 2014 and 2023, the net average annual carbon sink dropped by 30% compared to the decade before, largely due to dynamics in forest land.
Why the decline in Europe’s forest sink?
Over the past decade, the decline in net carbon removal by the LULUCF sector has been caused by a few interrelated factors affecting the forest land sink:
- Forest stands have matured, sequestering carbon at a lower rate.
- Tree felling has increased due to economic and policy drivers, and salvage logging.
- Climate change and more frequent and severe natural disturbances, including forest fires, droughts and pests, have affected forest carbon stocks.
Great potential for mitigation options from LULUCF
Despite recent setbacks, the LULUCF sector continues to be a vital tool in the EU’s quest for climate neutrality by 2050. With the right policies and measures, the EU can unlock its full potential.
A range of land-based mitigation options are available. Examples include:
- Protecting carbon stocks, e.g. by avoiding the drainage of peatlands.
- Improved management of forests, cropland, and grassland, including restoration of degraded ecosystems.
- Tree-planting, including afforestation or agroforestry, or in settlements.
- The use of biomass in long-lasting, high-value products – such as construction materials.
Most mitigation options can deliver significant co-benefits for biodiversity, water and soils, and climate adaptation, while supporting rural livelihoods, but uptake is affected by inconsistent policies and a lack of financial incentives, among other factors.
Better data, better decisions
Reported GHG data on land use and forestry remain among the most uncertain of all sectors. Encouragingly, EU countries have committed to improving data quality. The success of mitigation strategies in LULUCF, by public and private entities, will depend on their capacity to capitalise on the potential of an evolving technology and data landscape.
If Europe is to meet its climate neutrality goals by 2050, immediate and concerted efforts are needed. While taking action, we should embrace a long-term perspective and not lose sight of co-benefits, such as more resilient ecosystems and bioeconomy value chains.
