Over the past 5 years, the von der Leyen Commission has passed more environmental regulations than any in history. The Green Deal was a triumph of soaring rhetoric and self-satisfaction. But the Regulations themselves were just words on a page – with no more force in the real world than the endless tweets and press releases emanating from MEPs’ offices.
Now, though, the implementation is here. The real world, it turns out, does not share the Green Deal architects’ vision. That huge number you wrote because it made a great headline – it’s not feasible in such a short time in the real world. The granular data requirements you added because they made the EU appear tough – they’re expensive in the real world.
The real world is where most EU citizens live. Dependent on local and global supply chains. Sensitive to changes in the price of food, energy and materials. Concerned that local and national businesses – that provide good jobs for millions of Europeans – are facing higher bills and more red tape.
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has now collided with the real world: the implementation deadline was planned for 30th December 2024 but has now been delayed by 12 months. Those in power have finally realized that if EUDR actually does go ahead in December, then chaos will reign. Why?
It’s simple. The regulation is not written with the real world in mind. The EUDR covers commodities largely produced in the developing world: palm oil from Malaysia; coffee from Ethiopia; cocoa from Cote d’Ivoire; rubber from Thailand; soy from Brazil; and so on. The EUDR imposes draconian requirements on small farmers in those countries who produce these commodities. Some of the requirements – like detailed geotargeting of crops; submission of millions of individual supply chain data points – would be very challenging for Western multinationals. EUDR, in its far-sighted ambition – tries to impose these demands on small farmers in Africa or Asia who do not own a smartphone.
Re-read the list of food products above, coming from the developing world. Imagine a supermarket bill where each of those products has increased in price, or reduced in supply. Almost every single one of the 450 million EU citizens will be negatively impacted. All because of an EU regulation.
Earlier this year, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz directly asked Ursula von der Leyen to delay EUDR – for this reason. Twenty of the EU’s Agriculture Ministers have made the same demand. Senior MEPs, including the leading EPP MEP on the Environment Committee, Peter Liese, also backed a delay.
However – these interventions were late, and this entire situation was avoidable. The EU’s trading partners had been warning about the problems for years. Ministers and trade officials from Malaysia predicted precisely this outcome of chaos and uncertainty, as far back as Spring 2023. No-one in Brussels listened: the hubris of the bureaucrats overrode the real-life experience of the traders, farmers and suppliers from the developing world.
The new Commissioner nominees Jessika Roswall, Wopke Hoekstra and Teresa Ribera now have 12 months to fix the problems. If not, they face the possibility of January 2026 being dominated by supply chain chaos, sharply rising food prices, and restricted supply of core commodities.
The three new overlapping Commissioners for environment and climate should, one hopes, learn from this farce: listen more to our trading partners. Seek genuine engagement with the private sector inside and outside the EU. Resist the hubris of the EU bubble that thinks that sophisticated global supply chains can simply enact EU press releases with no negative effects on consumers. Will the lessons be learned? We can hope so, yes. But let’s be honest: that hope comes without any real expectation.
