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Brexit: Tens of thousands EU citizens face deportation because of government settled status scheme, MPs warn

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Brexit: Tens of thousands EU citizens face deportation because of government settled status scheme, MPs warn
Tens of thousands of EU citizens resident in the UK – including some of the “heroes and heroines of the coronavirus crisis” – could be facing deportation because they have fallen through the cracks of the government’s post-Brexit settled status scheme, a group of MPs has warned.

The MPs have written to Boris Johnson calling for a legal “right to stay” to provide reassurance to more than 3 million EU nationals believed to be living in the UK.

Under the government scheme, nationals of the EU, EEA and Switzerland who have been in the UK continuously for five years can apply for settled status allowing them to remain, while others who came to the country before the end of 2020 can get “pre-settled” status which can be upgraded once they reach the five-year mark.

By the end of July, some 3.8m applications had been made and 3.6m concluded, with just over 2m people – 57 per cent of applicants – being granted settled status, 1.5m (41 per cent) pre-settled status and around 75,000 (2 per cent) classed as refused, withdrawn, void or invalid.

Signatories to the letter said the figures showed that hundreds of thousands of people would be left for up to five years after the end of the Brexit transition period in December before knowing whether they will be able to stay long-term. And they said that, even if the scheme was 98 or 99 per cent successful, the number without the right to remain at the end of 2020 could stretch into tens of thousands.

The letter, signed by Scottish National Party Westminster leader Ian Blackford, Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman Alistair Carmichael, Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price, SDLP leader Colum Eastwood and Green MP Caroline Lucas, noted that migrants make up a large proportion of the delivery drivers, agricultural workers, supermarket staff, nurses and care home workers who kept the country running during the coronavirus lockdown.

“It should be a matter of national shame that many of the heroes and heroines of the coronavirus crisis will have been made to feel so unwelcome in this country by the tone and content of our national debate on immigration,” said the MPs.  

“Millions of European migrants who live in the UK and who are now working in hospitals and supermarkets derive their right to be here from EU freedom of movement rules which the government is seeking to abolish. They are now being asked to apply for their right to stay in the UK via the settled status scheme, a process which is not guaranteed to be successful.  

“Although settled status has now been granted to many EU citizens, we are extremely concerned at the prospect of some losing their status in the UK. With much of the government and third sector having been shut down by the coronavirus crisis, the applications system has been severely disrupted, as has the support system for applicants and public awareness campaigns. Unless the government acts, many thousands of people could fall through the cracks.”

They called on Mr Johnson to pass primary legislation to grant a legal right to stay to EU citizens.

Mr Blackford said: “The UK government must confirm the rights of EU nationals to remain as a matter of urgency.  

“Many people risk falling through the cracks, causing uncertainty and distress for thousands of EU nationals who have made the UK their home.”

And Ms Lucas added: “The millions of EU citizens who have made their home in the UK are not just a statistic, or an economic asset – they are our neighbours, friends and families. The idea that we could allow any one of them to lose their status here should fill us with shame.

“Yet that is inevitably what will happen to thousands of people unless the settled status system is fundamentally overhauled, even if the overwhelming majority do apply successfully.  

“During the EU referendum, those campaigning for Leave said that Europeans living in the UK would have a right to stay, not a right to apply to a convoluted system which might reject them. Today, we are asking that this very basic promise be honoured.”

Alena Ivanova, an organiser for the Right to Stay and Another Europe is Possible campaigns, said that the UK government had so far failed to guarantee that absences from Britain during the coronavirus crisis – when some EU nationals have been trapped abroad for lengthy periods – would not count against an applicant’s claim to have been in the country for five unbroken years.

“While the Home Office paints a rosy picture of the success of the settlement scheme, there are still millions at risk of losing their rights in the coming years,” she said.

“A system that asks you to apply to stay in your home – in some cases twice – is not what European nationals were promised.

“Even if we assume that 98 or 99 per cent of them apply successfully that would still mean tens of thousands of people facing deportation from the place they have made their home.

“Since coronavirus struck, we have had a plethora of reports of new issues which simply cannot be overcome in time – from a lack of awareness and support in the application process to periods of absence from the UK during the crisis. It’s time for the Home Office to re-assess the scheme and grant automatic status to all.”

A Home Office spokesperson said: “The EU settlement scheme makes it easy for EU citizens and their family members who want to stay in the UK to get the immigration status they need. It provides them with secure evidence which they can use to demonstrate their right to work, study, housing and benefits.

“There have been more than 3.8 million applications to the EU settlement scheme already and more than 3.5 million grants of status. People’s rights are secured in UK law whether they have pre-settled status or settled status.”

Britain Won’t Become EU ‘Client State’, UK Chief Brexit Negotiator Warns Ahead of Fresh Talks

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Britain Won't Become EU 'Client State', UK Chief Brexit Negotiator Warns Ahead of Fresh Talks

The UK “won’t blink” in the crucial talks on post-Brexit economic arrangements, Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost warned his EU colleagues in an interview with the Mail on Sunday, insisting that the UK would not become a “client state” of Brussels by accepting its restrictions on fishing rights and vetoes of British laws.

In his first interview since he assumed office in January, Frost stressed the EU needed to realise that Johnson’s Cabinet was adopting a more determined and balanced approach than Theresa May’s government.

“We came in after a government and negotiating team that had blinked and had its bluff called at critical moments and the EU had learned not to take our word seriously”, Frost started off, adding that what Britain has of late been doing is “to get them to realise that we mean what we say and they should take our position seriously”.

Lord Frost said Brussels “have not accepted that in key areas of our national life we want to be able to control our own laws and do things our way and use the freedoms that come after Brexit”, stressing the country would in no way “compromise on the fundamentals of having control over our own laws”.

He went on to emotionally outline what being independent is about and what British people voted for:

“We are not going to accept level playing field provisions that lock us in to the way the EU do things; we are not going to accept provisions that give them control over our money or the way we can organise things here in the UK and that should not be controversial”.

Frost noted that Downing Street has been making extensive preparations to ensure that businesses and citizens are ready for the end of the transition period in any scenario – “outside the customs union, outside the single market, and outside the EU”.

“Obviously, lots of preparation was done last year, we are ramping up again and have been for some time under Michael Gove’s authority”, Frost detailed, stressing that most importantly, the UK “wants to get back the powers to control our borders”.

He said Britain isn’t ruling out any type of trade agreement:

“If we can reach an agreement that regulates trade like Canada’s, great. If we can’t, it will be an Australian-like trading agreement and we are fully ready for that”, he said.

‘Re-Gripping the Agenda’ in Run-up to Eighth Round of Talks

Frost’s comments come ahead of his counterpart Michel Barnier’s arrival in London for a fresh round of talks on Tuesday.

This week’s round of talks, the eighth, marks the final phase of the negotiations, with Lord Frost’s team calling for “more realism” from the EU to break the deadlock and meet the transition period deadline for a comprehensive bilateral deal.

The bullish Brexit rhetoric is part of an attempt by Johnson’s government to “re-grip the agenda” after a tumultuous summer marked by endless U-turns on issues such as COVID policy and A-level exam grades.

The other day, Frost even issued a warning to Brussels suggesting the bloc’s demands on fishing and state subsidies could “limit the progress” potentially made next week.

EU’s Stance ‘Limiting Potential Progress’

Indicating that the UK could indeed be weighing a no-deal divorce from the EU, Frost said that London has been clear about its stance from the very beginning:

 “The EU still insists we change our positions on state aid and fisheries if there are to be substantive textual discussions on anything else”.

“We will negotiate constructively but the EU’s stance may, realistically, limit the progress we can make next week”, he concluded.

Frost tweeted the comments after his European counterpart Michel Barnier said that while the UK can retain control over the waters washing its coasts, “the fish which are inside those waters” are “another story”.

The bloc has been aiming to retain access for its fishing boats, while Downing Street insists that British trawlers should by all means be given top priority.

Separately, Brussels is seeking a “level playing field” on state aid rules that would virtually tie Britain to EU regulations after the transition period expires in late December.

UK warns EU on Brexit: We won’t blink first

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UK warns EU on Brexit: We won't blink first

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain will not blink first in Brexit trade negotiations with the European Union and is not scared of a no-deal exit at the end of the year, the country’s top Brexit negotiator warned the bloc on Sunday.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== UK warns EU on Brexit: We won't blink first
FILE PHOTO: EU’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier gestures as he holds a news conference after a meeting with Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost in Brussels, Belgium August 21, 2020. REUTERS/Yves Herman/Pool/File Photo

Britain left the EU on Jan. 31 but talks have so far made little headway on agreeing a new trade deal for when a status-quo transition arrangement ends in December.

“We came in after a government and negotiating team that had blinked and had its bluff called at critical moments and the EU had learned not to take our word seriously,” negotiator David Frost told the Mail on Sunday.

“So a lot of what we are trying to do this year is to get them to realize that we mean what we say and they should take our position seriously,” he was quoted as saying.

Talks are due to resume in London on Tuesday but they have stalled over Britain’s insistence that it have full autonomy over state aid and its demands over fishing.

Britain says the EU is dragging its feet in talks and has failed to fully accept that it is now an independent country.

“We are not going to be a client state. We are not going to compromise on the fundamentals of having control over our own laws,” Frost told the Mail. “We are not going to accept level playing field provisions that lock us in to the way the EU do things.”

“That’s what being an independent country is about, that’s what the British people voted for and that’s what will happen at the end of the year, come what may,” Frost said.

At heart, Britain is pressing one of the EU’s most sensitive buttons – the fear that a post-Brexit Britain could become a much more agile, deregulated free-market competitor on its border by using selective state aid.

“We cannot have a situation where the UK essentially is allowed to deregulate its economy to create competitive advantage in terms of reducing the cost base of doing business or indeed providing more state aid than is available in the EU single market and therefore creates competitive advantage that it’s looking to trade into tariff-free and quota-free,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said.

“Why would the EU ever facilitate that?” he said.

Frost said a lot of preparation had been done for a possible exit without a trade deal.

“I don’t think that we are scared of this at all,” Frost said. “If we can reach an agreement that regulates trade like Canada’s, great. If we can’t, it will be an Australian-like trading agreement and we are fully ready for that.”

Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge in London and Padraic Halpin in Dublin; Editing by William Schomberg and Mark Potter

EU’s taxonomy regulation – towards a greener economic recovery

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EU’s taxonomy regulation – towards a greener economic recovery

As indicated in the European Commission’s Action Plan on financing sustainable growth, issued in March 2018, the lack of a clear definition of “environmentally-sustainable economic activities” presents one of the biggest obstacles to the European Union in financing its green deal and 2050 climate neutral target. 

With this in mind, on July 12, the EU taxonomy regulation entered into force with the objective of setting performance thresholds to be able to categorise environmentally-sustainable economic activities.

The EU taxonomy regulation is targeted towards three financial stakeholders: (i) financial market participants; (ii) large companies that are already required to provide a non-financial statement under the Non-Financial Reporting Directive (NFRD); and (iii) EU members states keen on issuing labels on green financial products or issuing green bonds.        

The EU taxonomy regulation will apply in two stages, as of January 1, 2022, for the first two environmental objectives – climate change mitigation and adaptation; and as of January 1, 2023, for the remaining four environmental objectives ‒ water, circular economy, pollution prevention and biodiversity.

Such an EU-wide classification system for environmentally-sustainable economic activities will be developed through the European Commission issuing two delegated acts following extensive consultation with all relevant stakeholders.  To assist the European Commission in the development of these delegated acts, a Platform for Sustainable Finance gathering various experts and stakeholders will be created, tasked with providing advice on the EU taxonomy technical screening criteria.  

The lack of a clear definition of ‘environmentally sustainable economic activities’ presents one of the biggest obstacles to the EU in financing its green deal

The first delegated act will define the technical criteria for activities that substantially contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, while not causing significant harm to any of the other EU’s environmental objectives, and will be issued by the end of 2020.  The second delegated act will define the technical criteria for activities that substantially contribute to water, circular economy, pollution prevention and biodiversity by the end of 2021. 

In parallel, the European Commission is currently reviewing the non-financial reporting directive (NFRD) in line with its December 2019 communication on the European Green Deal.  The non-financial reporting directive requires certain large public interest companies (large listed undertakings, large banks and large insurance undertakings with more than 500 employees) to disclose information on the way they operate and manage social and environmental challenges.

The taxonomy regulation also requires all companies preparing non-financial statements under the NFRD to publish information on how and to what extent their activities are associated with environmentally-sustainable economic activities under the EU taxonomy regulation.

This would include classifying the proportion of (i) turnover generated; and (ii) capital and operational expenditure linked to activities that substantially contribute, while doing no harm, to the six environmental objectives in the taxonomy regulation. The above reporting obligations are to be implemented via a third delegated act which is expected to be adopted by the EU Commission in June 2021. 

Implementing these multiple reporting obligations in a standardised format will be challenging on financial market participants.  However, cumulatively, these initiatives will improve transparency in capital markets to create the required impetus to guide investors, large undertakings and financial intermediaries to enhance capital flows towards environmentally-sustainable projects. This will assist European capital markets raise the required green financing to steer Europe towards a greener economic recovery post-COVID-19.  

Mark Scicluna Bartoli also sits on the Board of the European Investment Fund and is a member of the European Commission’s Mission Board on adaptation to climate change. Any views, assumptions or opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.

Mark Scicluna Bartoli, Head, Bank of Valletta EU and Institutional Affairs section

Independent journalism costs money. Support Times of Malta for the price of a coffee.

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EU approves $236m aid to Covid-hit Alitalia

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EU approves 6m aid to Covid-hit Alitalia
The European Commission has found Italian €199.45 million ($236 million) support in favour of Alitalia aiming to compensate the airline for the damages suffered due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager said: “This measure will enable Italy to compensate Alitalia for the damage directly suffered due to the travel restrictions necessary to limit the spread of the coronavirus. The aviation industry is one of the sectors that has been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus outbreak.

“We continue working with Member States to find workable solutions to support companies in these difficult times, in line with EU rules. At the same time, our investigations into past support measures to Alitalia are ongoing and we are in contact with Italy on their plans and compliance with EU rules.”

Alitalia is a major network airline operating in Italy. With a fleet of over 95 planes, in 2019 the company served hundreds of destinations all over the world, carrying about 20 million passengers from its main hub in Rome and other Italian airports to various international destinations. Since the start of the coronavirus outbreak, Alitalia has suffered a significant reduction of its services, resulting in high operating losses.

Italy notified to the Commission an aid measure to compensate Alitalia for the damage suffered from  March 1, 2020 to June 15, 2020 resulting from the containment measures and travel restrictions introduced by Italy and other destination countries to limit the spread of the coronavirus. The support will take the form of a €199.45 million direct grant, which corresponds to the estimated damage directly caused to the airline in that period. – TradeArabia News Service

EU criticizes the sentencing of Azerbaijani opposition leader

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EU criticizes the sentencing of Azerbaijani opposition leader

The European Union Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Spokesperson Peter Stano has criticized the sentencing of Azerbaijani opposition leader Tofiq Yagublu. “Armenpress” introduces the text of the statement:

“On 3 September, Mr Tofiq Yagublu, Deputy Chairman of the Musavat political party was sentenced to four years and three months’ imprisonment. There are serious questions as to whether due process was observed throughout his detention and trial. While the European Union welcomes the recent registration of the Republican Alternative Party (ReAl) as a political party in Azerbaijan, the sentencing of Mr Yagublu raises questions about the authorities’ commitment to protecting and enhancing political freedoms for all.

The EU calls upon the authorities to re-examine the case of Mr Yagublu, in line with Azerbaijani’s international commitments.”

 

Quiet corridors but a full programme at virtual UNGA75: five things you need to know

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Quiet corridors but a full programme at virtual UNGA75: five things you need to know

This month, there will be no bumping into presidents or the occasional global celebrity in hectic and sometimes crushed corridors at UN Headquarters in New York.

There will be no marvelling at seemingly endless presidential motorcades on First Avenue and no “standing-room only” moments in the gilded General Assembly Hall, as the Organization’s busiest time of the year is reimagined in the time of COVID-19.

Most leaders will not be appearing in person and meetings are going virtual, but that’s not to say that the wheels of global diplomacy and sustainable development will not be turning at the usual speed.

Here are five things to look out for at UNGA 75.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Quiet corridors but a full programme at virtual UNGA75: five things you need to knowUN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

 

Katalin Bogyay, Permanent Representative of Hungary to the United Nations, prepares her ballots during the elections in the General Assembly Hall.

1) Presidents and Heads of State calling in speeches

The centrepiece of any new General Assembly (often shortened to GA) session, is undoubtedly the General Debate, which starts on 22 September, a week after the official opening. 

It’s a globally unique occasion at which presidents and heads of state (or sometimes their deputies or foreign ministers) take to the dais, and address a world audience on an issue of their choosing. This year, because of the pandemic, world leaders will be staying away and have been invited to send in pre-recorded videos of their speeches which will be broadcast “as live”. 

Speeches are expected to be introduced by a New York-based representative of each state, who will be physically present.

However, any world leader has the right to turn up in person, to deliver his or her keynote address, an opportunity that at least one president seeking re-election this year, is reported to be mulling over. 

Read more here about the first virtual GA.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Quiet corridors but a full programme at virtual UNGA75: five things you need to knowUN Photo

 

The Headquarters of the United Nations and New York’s mid-Manhattan skyline, 24 October 1955.

2) Celebrating 75 years

The United Nations was established in 1945 and has been marking its 75th anniversary with what the UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called an extended “people’s debate” which “promises to be the largest and furthest-reaching global conversation ever on building the future we want.”  

An event at UN headquarters on 21 September to celebrate the milestone (which will also take place online and remotely) will aim to “generate renewed support for multilateralism”; an issue many believe has become ever more urgent as the world faces up to the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s expected that the Secretary-General will address, in person, the High-Level event to mark the 75th anniversary in the GA Hall.

Read more here about the role of youth leaders in fashioning a UN fit for their future.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Quiet corridors but a full programme at virtual UNGA75: five things you need to know© FAO/Fredrik Lerneryd

 

A woman harvests beans on a cooporative farm in Kenya.

3) ‘Transforming the world’ through Sustainable Development

The Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs – the 17 internationally agreed targets to reduce poverty and maintain peace, whilst protecting the planet – have remained at the top of the UN’s agenda during 2020, with many arguing, including the UN Deputy Secretary-General,  that the pandemic has only underlined more forcefully why they are so important.

At the 75th GA session, the SDGs will be put under the spotlight in what is being described as a “first of its kind 30-minute global broadcast”, created by writer and director, and SDG advocate, Richard Curtis, which will take audiences across the world “on a dynamic exploration of the times we live in, the multiple tipping points our planet faces, and the interventions that could transform our world” up to 2030, when, it’s hoped, the SDG targets will be met.

Meanwhile, the SDG Action Zone, which last year provided a focal point and meeting place at UN Headquarters to promote the global sustainable development agenda, is moving online with appearances from “inspirational leaders” promised on the bill.

And the SDG Media Zone will be hosting a  series of conversations on  ‘some of the most defining issues of today’, including the impact of COVID-19, the development and availability of a vaccine, virus misinformation and myths as well as gender equality and the urgent need to protect the world’s diminishing biodiversity. 

The UN will also be partnering with the Al Jazeera English flagship social media show, The Stream, in a series of discussions around the SDGs.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Quiet corridors but a full programme at virtual UNGA75: five things you need to knowCoral Reef Image Bank/Matt Curno

 

Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

4) Facing up to ‘unprecedented loss’ of global biodiversity

Earth’s biodiversity, its rich variety of life, is declining at what the UN has warned “an unprecedented rate.”  Over one million species are at risk of extinction, two billion hectares of land are currently degraded and 66 per cent of oceans, 50 per cent of coral reefs and 85 per cent of wetlands have been significantly and negatively altered by human activity. 

A major international summit to discuss how to reverse the accelerating deterioration of the natural environment and how it is harmfully impacting people’s lives was due to be held this year in Kunming, China, but it has now been postponed until May 2021

In the meantime, a day of virtual meetings will be taking place under the auspices of the General Assembly on September 30. Meanwhile, look out for the 2020 Biodiversity Outlook published on 15 September.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Quiet corridors but a full programme at virtual UNGA75: five things you need to knowUNDP/Sumaya Agha

 

A woman drives a forklift truck at the recycling plant where she works in Northern Shouneh, Jordan.

5) Gender: 25 years after Beijing

Progress on gender equality and women’s rights has been severely impacted by COVID-19, as women and girls suffer a disproportionate social and economic fallout according to the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres. 

On 1 October, this and other issues relating to gender equality and empowerment are due to be discussed at the UN in the context of the 25th anniversary of the internationally agreed Beijing Platform for Action which is widely acknowledged as the most comprehensive and forward-looking plan for advancing the rights of women and girls. 

Look out for the first ever International Equal Pay Day on 18 September which focuses on aligning pay between men and women.

ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw== Quiet corridors but a full programme at virtual UNGA75: five things you need to knowUN Photo/Evan Schneider

 

The Empire State Building is lit up in red in honour of first responders during the COVID-19 outbreak in New York.

And one more…happy New Yorkers

Not strictly part of the General Assembly, but inextricably linked; many New Yorkers dread the opening of the new GA session every September which brings the closing of streets, presidential-motorcade-induced traffic jams on First Avenue and the surrounding Midtown area, and enervating disruptions to general life. 

This year, while world leaders stay away, New Yorkers, despite the severe, ongoing challenges of the pandemic, which include billions of dollars in lost revenue from visitors and tourists, will no doubt enjoy a respite from the week or ten days when a small part of their global city is given over to presidents and heads of State.

Britain will not be EU ‘client state’, says UK Brexit envoy

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Britain will not be EU ‘client state’, says UK Brexit envoy
European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and British Prime Minister’s Europe adviser David Frost 5 are seen at start of the first round of post -Brexit trade deal talks between the EU and the United Kingdom, in Brussels, Belgium March 2, 20

LONDON, Sept 6 — Britain will not become “a client state” under the terms of any post-Brexit trade deal struck with the European Union, the UK’s chief negotiator David Frost insisted late yesterday.

Ahead of an eighth and final round of scheduled talks with the EU next week, Frost said Britain was “not going to compromise on the fundamentals of having control over our own laws”.

“We are not going to be a client state,” he told the Mail on Sunday in a rare newspaper interview, as the stalled negotiations with the bloc near their conclusion.

“We are not going to accept provisions that give them control over our money or the way we can organise things here in the UK and that should not be controversial,” Frost added.

“That’s what being an independent country is about, that’s what the British people voted for and that’s what will happen at the end of the year, come what may.”

Britain formally left the EU in January, nearly four years after a landmark referendum to end almost 50 years of European integration.

But it remains bound by EU rules until the end of this year as both sides try to thrash out the terms of their future relationship.

The talks have become gridlocked over several issues, including so-called level playing field provisions and state aid as well as fisheries.

Time is running out for both sides to reach agreement, given the need for the deal and legal texts to be scrutinised by member states and ratified by the European parliament.

The deadlock has heightened fears of a no-deal Brexit after December 31, when much of the trade between Britain and the bloc could revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules and tariffs.
However, Frost insisted Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his senior ministers are not “scared” of such a scenario.

“If we can reach an agreement that regulates trade like Canada’s, great. If we can’t, it will be an Australian-like trading agreement and we are fully ready for that,” he said.

Referring to several years of prior negotiations, Frost said the previous UK government led by ex-premier Theresa May “had blinked and had its bluff called at critical moments” during Brexit talks — a mistake they would not be making.

“A lot of what we are trying to do this year is to get them to realise that we mean what we say and they should take our position seriously,” he added. — AFP

Sterling (GBP) Remains Under Pressure as EU/UK Trade Talks Stall

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Sterling (GBP) Remains Under Pressure as EU/UK Trade Talks Stall
            <!--UdmComment--><!--/UdmComment-->
              <h2 class="fe_heading2">Sterling (GBP) Remains Under Pressure as EU/UK Trade Talks Stall</h2>
              </p><div readability="75.243153526971">

Sep 05, 2020 (MENAFN via COMTEX) —

(MENAFN – DailyFX) Sterling (GBP) Charts and Analysis:

  • Chances of a no-deal outcome are increasing.
  • BoE commentary leaves further monetary stimulus on the table.

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The British Pound is becoming increasingly vulnerable to a hard Brexit outcome with little to no visible progress on future EU/UK trade made between the two sides. After the latest informal talks between the two sides, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier accused the UK of lacking any real willingness to move forward, leaving the EU deadline of October 31 in doubt. The UK for its part refuses to countenance any deal on fisheries and level playing field commitments saying that it is not compatible with the UK’s status as an independent country. The odds of a hard/no-deal Brexit have risen to between 30% and 50% according to various market sources reports and commentary and this leaves Sterling vulnerable over the next 7 weeks. The next round of talks start on September 7th.

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In a recent speech titled ‘The economy and COVID-19: looking Back and Looking Forward’, Bank of England external member of the MPC Michael Saunders noted that unemployment is ‘likely to rise significantly in coming quarters’ and that if the economic recovery stalls, ‘some further monetary loosening may be needed’. While the BoE have consistently said that all monetary policy options are live, including negative rates, further QE is likely with the MPC meeting and monetary policy report publication on November 5 the most likely date. The UK gilt market continues to suggest lower for longer interest rates with the gilt curve negative-yielding all the way out to 6-years.

Next week there is little in the way of UK economic data until Friday 11th when the monthly GDP-3 month average for July is released at 07:00 GMT. This is expected to show a sharp pick-up in UK growth to -7.5% from a prior -20.5% with the year-on-year number falling to -11.2% from -16.8%. Manufacturing and industrial production data for July will also be released.

For all economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar.

GBP/USD touched a multi-month high of 1.3477 at the start of the week before fading lower to a current level of 1.3200, due in part to a resurgent US dollar . The chart shows that cable has been moving higher in a bullish flag formation, but this is now under threat a cluster of old lows around 1.3050 the next area of support.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (January – September 4, 2020) GBP/USD MIXED Data provided by of clients are net long. of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -18% -12% -14%
Weekly 16% -20% -10%

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IG client sentiment data shows retail traders are net-short GBP/ USD , normally a bullish contrarian signal for the pair. However, traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

Traders of all levels and abilities will find something to help them make more informed decisions in the new and improved DailyFX Trading Education Centre

What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1 .

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EU’s Michel says relocation no silver bullet to migration feuds

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EU’s Michel says relocation no silver bullet to migration feuds

Europe must improve migration procedures on its external borders, seal more deals with foreign countries and synchronise asylum policies in the bloc before it tackles the thorny issue of hosting asylum seekers, a top EU official said on Friday.

European Council President Charles Michel, who chairs summits of EU leaders, spoke to Reuters and five other European news agencies as the bloc prepares to have a fresh go at reforming its troubled asylum laws.

The system all but collapsed amidst a surge in arrivals of those fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East and Africa with more than a million people reaching the EU in 2015. This fuelled support for eurosceptic and nationalist groups, as well as contributing to Brexit.

“It’s not easy, it’s a difficult question and a difficult topic,” Michel said. “Let’s start with some initiatives which will help us be more efficient and maybe decrease political sensitivity of some other topics.”

By the latter, he meant deep rifts among the 27 EU countries over how to care for refugees and migrants.

Under the EU’s now-defunct rules, the southern states of arrival like Italy, Malta or Greece are responsible but they were quickly overwhelmed at the height of the sea arrivals season.

Countries opposed to immigration, such as Poland and Hungary, as well as Austria, however, refuse to help by hosting some of those people.

Years of such disputes damaged the EU’s cohesion, as well as leading it to tighten its external borders and asylum policies.

That has cut the numbers crossing the Mediterranean on unsafe dinghies but also drawn fire from rights groups over drownings and “Fortress Europe” denying help to those in need.

The bloc’s executive now wants overhaul of EU asylum law.

Sources told Reuters the proposal would still include obligatory relocation of asylum seekers among all member states at times of major immigration spikes, the element previously vehemently rejected by several states.

While the Commission’s proposal is expected at the end of September at the earliest, Michel said member states should first work more on external borders and clinching deals with foreign capitals under which the EU offers money and assistance in exchange for them hosting migrants and refugees rather than letting them embark for Europe.

Michel also proposed convergence of asylum benefits across the EU, where rich countries like Germany and Sweden are the most desired destinations, which contributes to uneven distribution of people across the bloc.

“Mandatory relocation is not the alpha and omega of the migration discussion. These threee points are more important,” he said.

Germany, which now holds the EU’s rotating presidency, hopes to get before the end of the year a “political road map” for a future deal to end rows over migration at a time when the EU faces challenges in its ties with Russia, China, Turkey and the United States.

Stressing how tall an order that would be, a senior EU diplomat told Reuters: “We are very far away from any sort of consensus. For different political reasons, the matter is still completely poisonous.” (Reuters)